I'm still sticking with my call that *long-term*, decentralized social media will be the winner. Too many of the world's greatest Android and iOS mobile development teams are now building for the fediverse. Too many of the world's best *human* moderation, privacy, and safety, experts are on the fediverse. The user benefits are too aligned, despite companies not having the usual metrics and analytics to optimize the experience.

Fighting the fediverse is like fighting a flood by punching it.

Yes, Mastodon still has huge problems with "HOA racism" and user safety. But there is a "path to green" for all of these problems. And people (including me! 🙋🏿‍♂️) are working on them.

Yes, the current version of ActivityPub is not ready for what's coming. But again, too many of the world's best SREs and API designers are now poking ActivityPub with a stick again, now that the scale constraints have changed.

If Fediverse wins, dozens (hundreds?) of mobile apps and services have a continued path to be sustainable businesses. Yes, some of the big ones are VC funded. But many of the others are not. Unapologetically: I like helping to create paths for user benefit centered, trust based, innovative, companies to thrive.

The Fediverse is messy. Just like democracy is messy. But they're both ideas that are too powerful to ignore. They tap into too much human power of both intellect and inspiration.

@justinmwhitaker

I don't think that's true.

I think it can continue to be messy and chaotic, and Fediverse still wins.🤷🏿‍♂️

I think that big corporations need Fediverse more than Fediverse needs big corporations. On current trajectory, the net flow of users is away from centralized platforms and towards the fedi.

I think that Meta entering fedi now, is an indicator that they see where this is all headed, and understand that they need to get there early. Like with Instagram. And WhatsApp.

@mekkaokereke It's going to stay chaotic and messy...but servers, bandwidth, and development cost money.

That net flow away from free ad/VC/data sale supported networks to charity driven servers maintained by volunteers or coalitions of the willing isn't supportable long term.

At some point, Mastodon, or whatever the site du jour is, is going to need a cash inflow to survive.

@justinmwhitaker

Ah, I see your point! Thanks for clarifying.

I think that happens naturally as well. The percent of people on Fedi that deeply understand the difference between capitalism and commerce, is increasing. The idea of labor (paying human beings for their time and expertise) is less taboo now. The idea that sharing the cost for a server without a profit motive is growing. When you eat at a restaurant with friends and split the bill, it's not "charity." It's also not profit driven.

@justinmwhitaker

"Use this server for free! Donate if you feel like it. Or don't! Up to you, mate!" works until it doesn't. Then we hear, "I'm shutting down in a month! Too much work, and y'all just yell at me anyway... 😢"

"This server is a co-op. It costs $5 a year at this level. We have subsidized memberships. If you can't pay, ask us! If you're able to, you can cover a subsidized membership for others! Every additional $5 you pay, covers a membership for someone else." is sustainable.