Peter Gleick

Allstate has joined State Farm in refusing to issue new homeowners insurance.

Do you realize the economic consequences of this threat of climate change? New homeowners will be unlikely to get new mortgages without insurance, and the costs will skyrocket.

Climate changes are going to have economic consequences far exceeding what traditional economists ever predicted.

#climatechange

https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/insurance-allstate-fires-18130622.php

Allstate has quietly stopped new home insurance policies in California

Allstate, one of the largest property and casualty insurance providers in California, hit pause on new policies in California last year.

San Francisco Chronicle
Jun 2, 2023 at 1:26pmWeb
Show threadDarrin WestJun 2, 2023
@petergleick Deniers might go on and on against the science. But the mathematicians at the insurance company won’t be denied. Deniers aren’t going to start a competing insurance company, because the numbers don’t lie. The one wrench here will be politics where public funds are used to prop up the system. I don’t want my taxes paying so people can live in the wrong place and deny their risky behavior.
Show threadVictoriaJun 3, 2023
@obviousdwest @petergleick
Sooner than later even govt won’t be able to prop up these massive losses. The challenge is it will be Impossible to know where the impacts will be. Fires in the mountains. Easier to identify than a massive fire in the suburbs of Denver. Even I did not see that coming. Flooding in obvious places. Okay. But massive rain in new places. More tornadoes. Stronger hurricanes. Economics may finally get people to understand.
Show threadquadrivial, tall and grayingJun 3, 2023
@obviousdwest @petergleick alas, have you heard about how the Feds rebuild beach houses over and over and over again?
Show threadben morettiJun 2, 2023
@petergleick there’ll have to be a public insurance scheme then
Show threadRonJun 3, 2023

@morebento @petergleick

They are not leaving because of politics. The actuarial tables show that it is probable that selling insurance would lead to losses.

That would be true for a public scheme as well unless the premiums were astronomical.

Show threadsparseMatrix 📻Jun 2, 2023

@petergleick

And far sooner.

Also, this will likely be the first significant series of events in which 'Big Business' is made to directly face climate change.

What Big Business must face, so must the conservative, love it or not.

Show threadErik AblesonJun 2, 2023

@petergleick @adrianco Bluntly put: Insurance companies are the reason there are a whole bunch of safety rules around things like fire and smoke alarms. If you want to change people’s behavior across the political spectrum, don’t start with the government policy, start with the insurance.

They don’t have a political stance on the policies they issue. It’s all about the numbers and if it gets too expensive, they’re out.

Show threadErik AblesonJun 2, 2023
@petergleick @adrianco Which has the follow-on effect that the banks won’t give you a mortgage without insurance because they don’t want to be on the hook if the asset goes up in smoke so we’re going to be seeing internal migrations sooner than expected
Show threadGATEKEEPERJun 2, 2023

@erik @petergleick @adrianco

How about requiring liablity insurance on all guns. When they go to buy munitions require the insurance card.

Show threadBandersnatchJun 2, 2023

@GatekeepKen @erik @petergleick @adrianco

That would require repealing or changing the 2nd Amendment.

Show threadGATEKEEPERJun 2, 2023

@Bandersnatch @erik @petergleick @adrianco

I doubt it...Just an amendment . Start it in the Senate.

Show threadBandersnatchJun 3, 2023
@GatekeepKen @erik @petergleick @adrianco This has been kicked around for decades. It simply won't pass Constitutional review, especially with this SCotUS & the numbers for an Amendment don't exist, but best of luck.
Show threadGATEKEEPERJun 3, 2023

@Bandersnatch @erik @petergleick @adrianco

The only hope is a larger majority in the Senate and control again of the house. All possible.

Show threadGATEKEEPERJun 2, 2023
@Bandersnatch @erik @petergleick @adrianco
Show threadVictoriaJun 3, 2023
@erik @petergleick @adrianco
Hence the reason gun ownership should be insured. The price would take care some of the issue.
Show threadKaren BethanyJun 2, 2023
@petergleick
Actually, insurers are leaving because they *cant* raise rates w/out regulatory approval. The ? Is whether the state will cave and raise rates to entice insurers back or whether the insurers that remain under regulated rates will be over-exposed to risk and will go bankrupt when the next catastrophe happens leaving home owners stuck as if they didn’t have insurance (that’s what happened in FL after big hurricane).
Show threadBeSeriousUSAJun 2, 2023

@petergleick

Prospective homebuyers will not be able to obtain mortgages if the can’t get insurance.

😕

Show threadFrank SkorniaJun 2, 2023
@petergleick And on the other side of the country, Florida is facing a complete collapse of its insurance industry as well
https://www.bankrate.com/insurance/homeowners-insurance/florida-homeowners-insurance-crisis/
Can Lawmakers Save the Collapsing Florida Home Insurance Market? | Bankrate

Bankrate interviewed experts to learn why the Florida insurance market is in crisis.

Bankrate
Show threadCsepp 🌢Jun 2, 2023
@petergleick Obligatory "sell their houses to who Ben?!" link.
https://redirect.invidious.io/watch?v=0-w-pdqwiBw
Select instance - Invidious

Show threadGiles GoatJun 2, 2023
@petergleick When I got my mortgage in Italy the story was the same "the bank WANTS an insurance". OK "fine" they have to protect themselves in case of loss. BUT ok "no more insurance" this also means "no more mortgages" or very FEW of them .. sure that's no good for banks too ? "They need mortgages" .. isn't this a bit of a snake biting its own tail ? The only ones that probably will earn are renters but then again high prices WHO can afford them ? No one ?
Show threadDaniel BakerJun 2, 2023

@petergleick
This has everything to do with lower profit margins for insurance companies due to California regulation and relatively little to do with climate change. IE, it's just cover for them to pressure the state into submission.

For example, my car insurance dropped by a factor of 5 (!) moving from Maryland to California just because of this.

Show threadBrayingBoozehoundJun 2, 2023
@petergleick Republicans may be able to gerrymander a district, but you can't gerrymander the data and there's no electoral college for climate data either. Climate change is real, it's happening, and pretending otherwise has a price tag.
Show threadHistoPol (#HP) 🏴 🇺🇸 🏴Jun 2, 2023

@petergleick

And then, there is the #social-democratic solution of some #European countries:

make home insurance obligatory, if there aren't enough underwriters, create a state-owned entity.

Funding?

Wealth tax, additional/minimum inheritance tax for multi-millionaires, windfall-profits tax.

Show threadprofessional theremin playerJun 3, 2023
@petergleick goodbye to pretending I will ever be able to own in my state!!!!
Show threadJoeJun 3, 2023
@petergleick While climate change is a serious issue, this is mostly a tactic to get the state of California to approve larger rate increases. Note that State Farm stopped all new policies, even those in areas with low fire danger.
Show threaddecitectJun 3, 2023
@petergleick @coolgrey Capitalism, in the sense of privatize profits, socialize risks. Many more insurers have pulled out of local WUI (fire) zip codes, such that there may be 1-3 giving quotes. But none of them want large groups of insured in WUI zip codes because of risk of loss on their bottom line. So a few will stay & raise rates, but will stop at a quota of total policies in an area substantially less than a greedy capitalist would! Collectively they’re abandoning the market; leaving the economic risk to cities counties & states. This was the way with earthquake insurance. With climate change, its growing to fire, flood, wind (tornado, hurricane), snow …
Show threadGATEKEEPERJun 5, 2023
@petergleick
These grifting insurance companies are spending billions in TV adds, but can't pay their claims..Fuckers..They're hideous.
Show threadDoug Baker - Elbows Up! 🇨🇦Jun 6, 2023
@petergleick I've always said to the climate deniers: if it's all fake, why have insurance companies been factoring it into their actuarial calculations for years?