Mastodawn

Augie Ray Apr 2, 2023

Three people hospitalized eating raw cookie dough, and "the CDC recommends following recipe or package instructions to fully cook cookies, cakes and other foods made with raw flour, and using warm water and soap to wash hands, utensils, countertops and anything else that comes into contact with raw four."

2,000 people die a week from #COVID19 and the CDC won't recommend wearing a mask or altering behaviors.

Make it make sense.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/31/health/salmonella-outbreak-flour/index.html

KyRad Apr 2, 2023

@augieray Can't afford to lose profits by upgrading air flow systems and having all of the country taking the vaccine. Just hide the numbers and pretend Covid is gone.

Alexey Merz Apr 2, 2023

@KyRad1669 @augieray CDC diea recommend wearing masks. Why would you lie about that?

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.html

Masks and Respirators

Wear a mask with the best fit, protection, and comfort for you.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Augie Ray Apr 2, 2023

@merz @KyRad1669 That info you shared is not current. Here is the current masking guidance from the CDC. The CDC only says to wear a high-quality mask or respirator where community levels are high (0.78% of the US). It says to wear a mask in medium areas (8.7%) “if you are at high risk of getting very sick.” You “may choose to wear a mask at any time” everywhere else.

Accuse me of lying again, and I'll block you.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/covid-by-county.html

COVID by County

COVID-19 Community Levels help you decide your prevention steps.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

sleepy.Apr 2, 2023

@augieray @merz @KyRad1669 block away.

Augie Ray Apr 2, 2023

@iamverysleepy @merz @KyRad1669 Not sure the point you think you're making. If you think the CDC lightly recommending less than 1% of the US mask contradicts my other statement statement,i think you're wrong. Half the US is at high or substantial transmission. COVID is rising in wastewater. Around 2,000 Americans die from COVID weekly. Suggesting 0.78% of the US mask is NOT reasonable or serious mask guidance.

Alexey Merz Apr 2, 2023

@augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 At this point morbidity and mortality are comparable to a relatively bad seasonal flu year. And a large majority of that morbidity and mortality are due to lack of vaccination or under-vaccination. But highly effective COVID-19 vaccines are in fact available.

Sure, mask in public indoor spaces, on transit, etc. I do. But I don't pretend that masking is remotely as important as vaccination and the bivalent boost.

Because it's not.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 That's not remotely true. This year was a bad flu year, do you want to see how it compared to covid deaths?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

What I wrote: "At this point morbidity and mortality are comparable to a relatively bad seasonal flu year."

What part of "at this point" are you finding it difficult to parse?

Please let me know. I'd be delighted to help you understand this.

PS, take a look at the CURRENT situation (as in, right now — that means the farthest right part of the graph, i.e., "At this point") and how far the red line is from the double black line. It's not far.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The data shows that is not true.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The data shows that what, exactly, is not true?

Be specific. Show your work.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

The lower black line shows expected flu and pneumonia (which is largely due to un-coded flu) mortality for a typical year. We can see this pattern with the overlay of the red and black lines in 2019.

The red line is not "many times" higher in 2023. It's about 1.5X to 2X as high. And right now, it's only a few percent higher.

In other words, for 2013 generally, COVID-19 mortality is indeed comparable to flu mortality.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Do you believe that every single pneumonia death that isn't covid is caused by the flu? Because that isn't true. The increase you saw during the flu season was mostly because of the flu, but many other illnesses can cause pneumonia, and are present all year.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

The largest fraction of pneumonia deaths have historically been from secondary infections due to influenza. That's been established for decades.

Do not confuse *coded* flu deaths (on the graph you posted) with TOTAL flu deaths.

Graph: Time series graph of influenza as a proportion of total pneumonia and influenza mortality, all ages

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/

Influenza as a proportion of pneumonia mortality: United States, 1959–2009

As causes of death, influenza and pneumonia are typically analyzed together. We quantify influenza’s contribution to the combined pneumonia and influenza mortality time series for the United States, 1959–2009. A key statistic is I/(P+I), ...

PubMed Central (PMC)

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 As the above linked article says, "What gets recorded on the death certificate and why has long been a subject of interest for historical demographers (Alter and Carmichael 1996, 1997, 1999). This study shows that, influenza versus pneumonia death classification is, in part, influenced by medical-social factors...

These results strongly endorse the standard practice of combined analysis of pneumonia and influenza mortality."

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 It's not rational to assume that they are just far worse at testing for flu than they are for covid, and to just dismiss what the actual data shows.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 It's not a question of testing. It's a question of what the death certificate says. And, as the linked article shows, that is wildly variable.

That's why the graph you posted specifies *coded* flu deaths, and why estimates of flu prevalence, morbidity, and mortality are always much higher than the number of coded cases.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 I'm talking about the actual data showing confirmed cases.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Those data don't tell you about actual clinical outcomes. What does? The black and red lines on the graph that you posted.

Note that the worse the flu data are for 2022-23 season, the smaller the fraction of that red line that's attributable to COVID-19.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Only if you assume that all of the things like masking, social distancing, going out less, and handwashing had absolutely no impact on flu infections.

Which is a completely illogical assumption that ignores all the actual data. The data shows clearly that there was a significantly reduced flu season, and, correspondingly, flu deaths are not happening at the same amount as they were pre-covid. We didn't see any decrease in pneumonia deaths because covid killed so many people that the decrease in flu deaths was erased by all the additional covid deaths.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

And, again, note that people who have been vaccinated and boosted with the bivalent booster are FOURTEEN (14) times less likely to die from COVID-19 than people who are unvaccinated.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7206a3.htm

Going back to the original post in this thread, there is no field study of mask efficacy that shows anything remotely like that protective effect.

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated ...

This report describes higher protection against COVID-19 infection and death among people who received an updated booster than people who received a monovalent booster.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 So, your argument is that it's a coincidence?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

What's a coincidence? That people staying home reduce transmission of respiratory pathogens?

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 So you think that everyone just chose to stay home, and the people wearing masks made no difference.

The data you're basing this on is, you don't feel like masks would be the thing, so you're just assuming people stayed home in large numbers despite no requirements or supporting data.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Do you have a better argument against mask use other than "'cuz I said so"?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

I haven't argued against mask use anywhere on this thread.

You must realize that, so why are you asserting otherwise?

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 You literally were just trying to argue that masks had no impact on flu deaths.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

I made no such argument. Read more carefully.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 We can pretend you didn't, because it was a very irrational argument.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

We don't have to pretend. I didn't make that argument. You don't seem like a person who is intentionally dishonest, so I'll chalk that up to error.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Like I said, sure.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Keep saying it after it's been pointed out that you're wrong, and then it's a lie.

I have not advocated against masks. I *have* said that vaccination and boosts are much more important. Which they are.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

And because you seem more interested in misrepresenting what I've said than in actually discussing evidence and policy,

Plonk.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Now that you see how flu deaths were reduced, yet overall pneumonia deaths were much higher, do you see how covid is significantly more deadly than the flu?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Once again: upthread you said this was a worse than average flu season. Was it worse than average, or not? Make up your mind.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The flu strains were far more deadly and virulent, as the article showed.

The result was a shortened flu season, as the graph showed.

Clearly, something intervened there.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

What article are you talking about? I have no idea what argument you are trying to make here.

Perhaps you'll explain.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 It's better if you read the links I attach.
https://eightpoint.app/@sashafox/110133320744728600

Sasha Fox (@[email protected])

@[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] @[email protected] If your belief that masking made no difference was true, we would expect to see a far longer and more deadly flu season. Instead, despite the intensity and early start, it lasted for significantly less time. What's your explanation if not for people continuing to mask? https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/28/flu-season-2022-cdc/

eightpoint

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 That link and the associated post never appeared on my feed.

But the more severe flu season is probably due to several factors: lower population immunity due to lower exposure in preceding years (people were staying home), and correspondingly lower pre-existing immunity are thought to be major drivers.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 No actual responses to my point so he just rageblocks. Lmao.

Some guys just can't handle being corrected by a woman.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Why do you believe the number of flu deaths decreased so much when we instituted covid prevention, such as masks?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Vast numbers of people were staying home. Air travel plummeted. Use of public transit plummeted. Schools closed.

But while those are measures suitable for a once in a century emergency, they are not a sustainable way of life.

Also, there's some data to suggest (but not prove) that COVID infection actively inhibits flu infection, by dint of activating innate (vs. adaptive) antiviral immune responses.

And there was a LOT of COVID infection.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 And so why was the flu season still so reduced this year when it was an extra bad flu year?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Upthread you said this was a worse than usual flu season. Now you say it was "so reduced."

Which is it?

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 If your belief that masking made no difference was true, we would expect to see a far longer and more deadly flu season. Instead, despite the intensity and early start, it lasted for significantly less time.

What's your explanation if not for people continuing to mask?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/10/28/flu-season-2022-cdc/

So far, this flu season is more severe than it has been in 13 years

The flu has hospitalized a record number of people this season, underscoring the potential for a perilous winter of respiratory viruses with covid-19 and RSV.

The Washington Post

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 If your argument is just "vaccines are more effective than masks, so we don't need masks", that's also another completely illogical argument.

That's like saying "If the most effective way to reduce your chance of a car accident is to not drive drunk, then I don't need to bother with anything else as long as I'm sober."

You still want to use turn signals and not speed.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

How large do you think the protective effect of masks is? And on what basis do you think that?

I think there are good laboratory studies indicating that an N95 offers some protection, depending on fit, exposure time, exposure risk, etc.

I know of very, very few field studies that show much benefit.

So my answer is this: if we are to make evidence-based choices, vaccination is a slam-dunk. Masks are "probably useful, but don't know how much."

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 So why do you believe far fewer people are catching the flu and it was much easier to contain now that people are masking?

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

If the protective effect of masks is large, it should be easy to measure the effect size.

Point me to the peer-reviewed papers showing large protective effect sizes for mask use.

I think masks help. I don't pretend to know whether the protection is 1.2X or 10X. But if it's the latter, that should be easy to show.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks - Nature Medicine

A study of 246 individuals with seasonal respiratory virus infections randomized to wear or not wear a surgical face mask showed that masks can significantly reduce detection of coronavirus and influenza virus in exhaled breath and may help interrupt virus transmission.

Nature

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 (seasonal human coronavirus is not covid btw)

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Exactly as I said. Lab studies of mask use suggest some benefit. Field studies with clinical outcomes doe not show large effects.

The *quantitative* efficacy of mask use with respect to preventing infection is still an open question.

By the way, vaccines also decrease exhaled titers, decrease the duration of infection (masks do not do that), and have been shown to decrease transmission.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 None of that is a reason not to wear masks.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

In contrast, study after study demonstrates very large protective effects for vaccination, particularly with boosts. Again: without vaccination you are 14 times more likely to die of COVID than if you are vaccinated and boosted with the bivalents.

So: if you want to save lives, and you are going to rely on evidence, start with getting people to get the bivalent booster.

Alexey Merz Apr 3, 2023

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669

Additionally, vaccination:
1. Decreases likelihood you'll get infected.
2. Decreases likelihood you'll infect someone else, if you are infected.
3. Decreases likelihood you'll get long COVID, if you are infected.
4. Vastly decreases likelihood you'll end up in the hospital with COVID.
5. Vastly decreases likelihood COVID will kill you.

Masks do only #1 and #2. Probably.

Sasha Fox Apr 3, 2023

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Yeah, if you do one and two, you don't have to worry about 3 - 5.

The argument is not "masks or vaccines". It's that clearly masks and vaccines are better than either one alone. They both help, so we should do both, because the result is that fewer human beings die.

As a human being with a will to live who knows other human beings, you have an invested interest in seeing the number of human beings dying reduced.