Mastodawn

KyRad Apr 2, 2023

@augieray Can't afford to lose profits by upgrading air flow systems and having all of the country taking the vaccine. Just hide the numbers and pretend Covid is gone.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/types-of-masks.html

Alexey Merz Apr 2, 2023

@KyRad1669 @augieray CDC diea recommend wearing masks. Why would you lie about that?

Masks and Respirators

Wear a mask with the best fit, protection, and comfort for you.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/covid-by-county.html

Augie Ray Apr 2, 2023

@merz @KyRad1669 That info you shared is not current. Here is the current masking guidance from the CDC. The CDC only says to wear a high-quality mask or respirator where community levels are high (0.78% of the US). It says to wear a mask in medium areas (8.7%) “if you are at high risk of getting very sick.” You “may choose to wear a mask at any time” everywhere else.

Accuse me of lying again, and I'll block you.

COVID by County

COVID-19 Community Levels help you decide your prevention steps.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

sleepy.Apr 2, 2023

@augieray @merz @KyRad1669 block away.

Augie Ray Apr 2, 2023

@iamverysleepy @merz @KyRad1669 Not sure the point you think you're making. If you think the CDC lightly recommending less than 1% of the US mask contradicts my other statement statement,i think you're wrong. Half the US is at high or substantial transmission. COVID is rising in wastewater. Around 2,000 Americans die from COVID weekly. Suggesting 0.78% of the US mask is NOT reasonable or serious mask guidance.

Alexey Merz Apr 2, 2023

@augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 At this point morbidity and mortality are comparable to a relatively bad seasonal flu year. And a large majority of that morbidity and mortality are due to lack of vaccination or under-vaccination. But highly effective COVID-19 vaccines are in fact available.

Sure, mask in public indoor spaces, on transit, etc. I do. But I don't pretend that masking is remotely as important as vaccination and the bivalent boost.

Because it's not.

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 That's not remotely true. This year was a bad flu year, do you want to see how it compared to covid deaths?

What I wrote: "At this point morbidity and mortality are comparable to a relatively bad seasonal flu year."

What part of "at this point" are you finding it difficult to parse?

Please let me know. I'd be delighted to help you understand this.

PS, take a look at the CURRENT situation (as in, right now — that means the farthest right part of the graph, i.e., "At this point") and how far the red line is from the double black line. It's not far.

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The data shows that is not true.

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The data shows that what, exactly, is not true?

Be specific. Show your work.

The lower black line shows expected flu and pneumonia (which is largely due to un-coded flu) mortality for a typical year. We can see this pattern with the overlay of the red and black lines in 2019.

The red line is not "many times" higher in 2023. It's about 1.5X to 2X as high. And right now, it's only a few percent higher.

In other words, for 2013 generally, COVID-19 mortality is indeed comparable to flu mortality.

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Do you believe that every single pneumonia death that isn't covid is caused by the flu? Because that isn't true. The increase you saw during the flu season was mostly because of the flu, but many other illnesses can cause pneumonia, and are present all year.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3827586/

The largest fraction of pneumonia deaths have historically been from secondary infections due to influenza. That's been established for decades.

Do not confuse *coded* flu deaths (on the graph you posted) with TOTAL flu deaths.

Graph: Time series graph of influenza as a proportion of total pneumonia and influenza mortality, all ages

Influenza as a proportion of pneumonia mortality: United States, 1959–2009

As causes of death, influenza and pneumonia are typically analyzed together. We quantify influenza’s contribution to the combined pneumonia and influenza mortality time series for the United States, 1959–2009. A key statistic is I/(P+I), ...

PubMed Central (PMC)

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 As the above linked article says, "What gets recorded on the death certificate and why has long been a subject of interest for historical demographers (Alter and Carmichael 1996, 1997, 1999). This study shows that, influenza versus pneumonia death classification is, in part, influenced by medical-social factors...

These results strongly endorse the standard practice of combined analysis of pneumonia and influenza mortality."

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 It's not rational to assume that they are just far worse at testing for flu than they are for covid, and to just dismiss what the actual data shows.

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 It's not a question of testing. It's a question of what the death certificate says. And, as the linked article shows, that is wildly variable.

That's why the graph you posted specifies *coded* flu deaths, and why estimates of flu prevalence, morbidity, and mortality are always much higher than the number of coded cases.

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 I'm talking about the actual data showing confirmed cases.

@sashafox @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Those data don't tell you about actual clinical outcomes. What does? The black and red lines on the graph that you posted.

Note that the worse the flu data are for 2022-23 season, the smaller the fraction of that red line that's attributable to COVID-19.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/72/wr/mm7206a3.htm

And, again, note that people who have been vaccinated and boosted with the bivalent booster are FOURTEEN (14) times less likely to die from COVID-19 than people who are unvaccinated.

Going back to the original post in this thread, there is no field study of mask efficacy that shows anything remotely like that protective effect.

COVID-19 Incidence and Death Rates Among Unvaccinated ...

This report describes higher protection against COVID-19 infection and death among people who received an updated booster than people who received a monovalent booster.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 So, your argument is that it's a coincidence?

What's a coincidence? That people staying home reduce transmission of respiratory pathogens?

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Do you have a better argument against mask use other than "'cuz I said so"?

I haven't argued against mask use anywhere on this thread.

You must realize that, so why are you asserting otherwise?

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 Now that you see how flu deaths were reduced, yet overall pneumonia deaths were much higher, do you see how covid is significantly more deadly than the flu?

Once again: upthread you said this was a worse than average flu season. Was it worse than average, or not? Make up your mind.

@merz @augieray @iamverysleepy @KyRad1669 The flu strains were far more deadly and virulent, as the article showed.

The result was a shortened flu season, as the graph showed.

Clearly, something intervened there.

What article are you talking about? I have no idea what argument you are trying to make here.

Perhaps you'll explain.