Plutus@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Co-invest...
John Serwach ✅@rubecube12 @plutus @ForeignSubstance
I don’t think so- he hasn’t sufficient liquid funds for that- he has maybe $150B - this is gonna need more like 2T - not a damn thing buffets gonna do.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance Buffett is not brought in for the money but to instill confidence while he gets sweetheart terms. The situation is worse than even I imagined - not just a regional bank problem or shadow banking or CRE.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance it’s always been a specious argument posed by Will and Danny - “well the Fed is forced to tighten because they were so behind the curve”. The issue was never binary (tightening or not) but pace and magnitude. Duration risk at this speed was always an issue as Whalen and Bove posited months and months ago. There is a severe lack of understanding of how real economy works by the Fed -
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance just because consumers are still spending like mad doesn’t mean the cap mkts/lending environment isn’t in disarray. They have no fookin clue what they are doing. Most importantly there is no adequate evidence that supply chain resolution has NOT been the much bigger driver in shift to disinflation. Fed will never admit because it obviates the need for them.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12 supply chains have been the only issue.
Someday, someone, will understand that not ALL inflation is at risk.
I suspect the government is extracting brutal terms from the entire banking industry even as we speak. #AboutTime
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 even though severe hiking doesn’t work - Danny wants it anyways just to inflict pain - schady…
Daniel Rubin ✅@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
If there is a pause hiking will continue at a slower pace until rates are higher than inflation. I dont want anything. I'm just saying what I see.
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Is inflation in the room with us now ?
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance yes it’s called Uber eats when food delivery should be free
ForeignSubstance ✅@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
It’s never “just the tip” 😂😂😂
@ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 @plutus thank God- a collision is the LAST thing you need right now!! Lol- does that include tips ?
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @johnserwach
Yeah that includes 30 dollars in tips
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
But more will roll in over the next few days
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
Oh, that’s better then.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
If Dems did similarly - they would be crucified. Recrimination is completely asymmetrical - why
https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1637552516601618432?s=20
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
Crony QE capitalism. It neefs to end.
Robert Reich (@[email protected])
Don't be distracted. The big story isn't "woke capitalism." It's crony capitalism that allows the wealthy and corporations to roll back laws to line their own pockets.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12
Governments hiring Dan - UsaJobs
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Lev Parnass destroying all the MAGA narratives on this space - love it
ttps://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ZkKzXOXajXJv
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Ok Yuki- it’s game on!! 🇺🇸🇯🇵⚾️⚾️⚾️🧢🏟️
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Dan, offer to represent her pro bono- this could be your first “starter marriage” —
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
The guy who runs the largest Twitter space
https://youtu.be/SAi99ov5OKM
https://youtu.be/Ol8-h8WGyFo
Follow the Money - The Mario Nawfal Files - Part 1
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 the number of con artists operating in daylight and being accepted into high society is staggering. That video is shocking.
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Does a Serow shit in the woods??
Speaking of, so we all in agreement, 25 points tomorrow ?
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
You can thank Danny (direct red phone to the WH) for advising them to pull the plug
@ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 @plutus
Dan- how’s the stone? Let’s start a non profit—-
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
I don't feel anything. I told you last week
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
No recession yet. 300 dollar day again
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
You said you “thought “ it had passed- thats not the same as “yes, it has passed”- nevertheless, glad you are well.
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 don’t wait for orders from Washington- mount your horses and ride to the sound of the guns!!
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
Counterstrike imminent https://newsie.social/@RupertCocke/110072478638244925
Rupert Cocke (@[email protected])
#Ukraine troops plan counterstrike https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/2390654-russias-war-on-ukraine-latest-ukrainian-troops-plan-counterstrike
@plutus @johnserwach @ForeignSubstance
@plutus Tell Luke Groman and Sean Russia is in a massive economic recession. Still waiting for the US job losses that he said would result
@rubecube12 @plutus @ForeignSubstance
I’m concerned Ukraine might not have sufficient ammunition to mount a sustained counter attack. Which is bizarre that we have gone thru so much ammo after preparing for 50 years for WWIII
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus After 1991, no one thought "the commies are coming thru the Fulda Gap". Javelins came just after that date, and not in huge bulk, plus they've been improved since.
Few imagined years of artillery duels, cuz the thinking was it would turn into missiles before that much time elapsed.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus The situation is not good at all. Even raw Russian conscripts can build defensive positions, and in depth. See, Kursk, battle of.
Aid is insufficient, and late. Little or no striking into Russia. I'm sorry, you cannot win this way with limited manpower to boot.
Best chance? Prolly to lure RA into an ill-advised advance & then win a huge battle of maneuver.
Meanwhile, UA bleeds.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12
I think the problem with the aid is the way we have slowly ratcheted up more advanced systems. Russia OTOH seems to have a severe manpower problem. Of course having had this discussion the Uk will probably launch a massive assault and retake crimea. Proving us both wrong again.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 I would put the odds of a successful assault on Crimea at < 5%. Yes, UA dramatically overperformed when Russia was dreaming about spring-2022 parades in Kyiv. Russia has cannon fodder. UA does not. The "manpower problem" is on the UA side.
I'd love to be wrong about this. But I really doubt that will be the case.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 And we agree about the aid. I said "insufficient, and late".
UA needs to kill about 8 Russians for every UA soldier lost. Three isn't going to make it, and it's likely they are not getting even that. We don't know, because sensibly, UA won't say.
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @rubecube12 what inflation - rents are so low lmao https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1638999101088976913?s=46&t=myUg8E_NfUxKRXrtk0UUnw
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @plutus
All I hear from my passangers is that the Rent is TOO DAMN HIGH
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance I’m not sure Russia has that kind of depth- in theory they could but it might cause a revolution or worse- they would still fail.
Their “fresh” recruits should be trained and ready to go, in fact they should have trained a lot of recruits but—- we’re not seeing that and they can’t even get them uniforms and food/rations. Wagner is even running out.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 I think Wagner is being deliberately bled ... by the Putin/FSB clique. They don't want any organized, armed, competition when this ends.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 I think it's really hard to have a revolution, too, when every TV station is "Fox News" on steroids. Dissent? Sure. There will always be that. But it's small, and disorganized, and likely to stay that way.
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance yeah but they have that history. Someone has to be coup worthy.
If this is remotely close they have very serious problems.
I’ve known my share of Ukrainians- they will fight to the last child.
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
Never mess with a Sicilian when death is on the line and never invade Ukraine in the winter time
@rubecube12 @johnserwach @plutus Summer & winter is exactly when you invade Ukraine. It's spring & fall mud that are the problems. Sure, it's cold. But it isn't Yakutsk.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 It's an important year, I think. Endless meatgrinder, a problem for Putin. But UA being held to a (ridiculously?) high standard, too. Must "do something" to keep the support flowing. But attacking w/ < 3-1 manpower advantage? In essentially "trench warfare" conditions? Little to no deep-strike capability? Few planes. Less than even one full battalion of Abrams—when they finally get there?
US elections will weigh by next winter.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @johnserwach
You get an economic depression big enough and revolution is the result. Just give it a few years. Tsarist Russia found out. They had tight grip on the media
@rubecube12 @plutus @johnserwach As long as they are selling oil ... "big enough" is likely to not be big enough.
I know what you are saying. But the US always thinks its opponents are domestically weak.
The Nazis persevered through day & night bombing. Japan had to be nuked—twice.
People rally 'round the flag. It has to be *really* *really* *really* bad, and even then it's probably not gonna be bad enough.
US hubris about this seems to never subside.
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus germany and Japan had some pride- russias had what, 2-4 revolutions/coups in the last 100 years ? Depending on how u score it. 1917, 1991, 93, 99 ??? They’re overdue! I guess germany had Valkyrie and Japan had the Kyūjō incident (the anti-coup)
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus I think the difference is simply that the strongmen know more about how to put on a good show these days. The lowest classes in Russia are NOT starving. They have mobile phones. Cars. Sure, the oligarchs have mansions in Cyprus, etc. But life in Russia is not peasant life under the Tsars. It's not even close.
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
If gdp continues to go negative they will be. Eventually lower income means you can't support as many people at the same standard of living they have now. People are loss averse. Loss of a high standard of living makes them angry
@rubecube12 @johnserwach @plutus Eventually, sure. But the *blame* has to be obvious, and it won't be. The West will be blamed. Will some people resist the ether? Sure. But again, all media in Russia is "Fox". They're a long way from any unrest organized and big enough to worry Putin and his FSB buddies. They can, and will, kill Russians, if it comes to that.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus Most comprehensive book on the subject I have read. Stops 2 years before the 22 invasion, but you can see it coming, and understand why Russia isn't going to just walk away.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance told you Bragg is weak sauce. The goal is to get him on Russia and insurrection not grift girls. Bragg was out for a political job - dems should’ve reigned him in now magas decrying more grievance. https://twitter.com/cenkuygur/status/1639074070800261120?s=46&t=myUg8E_NfUxKRXrtk0UUnw
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
Alright-
What’s in your pocket? Show me yours - I’ll show mine—-
https://www.wsj.com/articles/edc-everyday-carry-reddit-pocket-essentials-8f87d3bd
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus There's something in the water in Michigan? (I mean something *else*!) 😂
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/i/110275239/michigan-republicans-rising
@rubecube12 @plutus @ForeignSubstance
Oh come now, of everyone I know, I’m quite sure you are the EDC type. Confession is good for the soul…
On a more serious note, Gordon Moore has passed away.
Pink Floyd - Echoes (Remastered)
the starseeds - sonne mond und sterne
J.BRAHMS:PIANO CONCERTO No.2 Op.83 KRYSTIAN ZIMERMAN,L.BERNSTEIN,WIENER PHILHARMONIKER
