Daniel Rubin ✅@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
GDP NOwcast 3.2% with 6% inflation. = 9.2% nominal growth. You're the one spewing alternative facts concocted out of who knows where. Like Elon and FSD
Plutus@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @johnserwach Atlanta Fed doesn’t know it’s head from its arse. They could revise it 200 bps in a month and have done in the past. I track shit on the ground.
John Serwach ✅@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Just going to leave this here. Help you guys open your mind to what’s going on, or not— or as Dan might say “how come?”
https://stephaniekelton.substack.com/p/magical-thinking-monetary-thinking?utm_medium=email
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
I've been up on MMT for 7 year; chattin up Tankus, who provides a lotta the substance for her
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance This ain’t a sign of health and only SVB’s fault https://twitter.com/WallStJesus/status/1637121880678338560/photo/1
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus yeah the discount window is not where they want to go. How long till the market figured that out.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Arresting just for Stormy - has to be more or else lame
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus Justice is blind—
Desantis is done - probably eats his candy bars with his hands too—
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
How much dirt does Guo Wengui have on Trump - I bet plenty. Did he spill beans - ummm...
https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1636334791862755330?s=20
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Guo wengui built his fortune by collecting & leveraging compromising information on all sorts of powerful and connected people. There is 0 chance he didn’t try this on DJT
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12
Not sure what he’s gonna do? Make a deposit ? Tell people “banks are safe? Tell other rich people “banks are safe”?
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Co-invest...
@rubecube12 @plutus @ForeignSubstance
I don’t think so- he hasn’t sufficient liquid funds for that- he has maybe $150B - this is gonna need more like 2T - not a damn thing buffets gonna do.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance Buffett is not brought in for the money but to instill confidence while he gets sweetheart terms. The situation is worse than even I imagined - not just a regional bank problem or shadow banking or CRE.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance it’s always been a specious argument posed by Will and Danny - “well the Fed is forced to tighten because they were so behind the curve”. The issue was never binary (tightening or not) but pace and magnitude. Duration risk at this speed was always an issue as Whalen and Bove posited months and months ago. There is a severe lack of understanding of how real economy works by the Fed -
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance just because consumers are still spending like mad doesn’t mean the cap mkts/lending environment isn’t in disarray. They have no fookin clue what they are doing. Most importantly there is no adequate evidence that supply chain resolution has NOT been the much bigger driver in shift to disinflation. Fed will never admit because it obviates the need for them.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12 supply chains have been the only issue.
Someday, someone, will understand that not ALL inflation is at risk.
I suspect the government is extracting brutal terms from the entire banking industry even as we speak. #AboutTime
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 even though severe hiking doesn’t work - Danny wants it anyways just to inflict pain - schady…
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
If there is a pause hiking will continue at a slower pace until rates are higher than inflation. I dont want anything. I'm just saying what I see.
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Is inflation in the room with us now ?
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance yes it’s called Uber eats when food delivery should be free
ForeignSubstance ✅@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
It’s never “just the tip” 😂😂😂
@ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 @plutus thank God- a collision is the LAST thing you need right now!! Lol- does that include tips ?
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @johnserwach
Yeah that includes 30 dollars in tips
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
But more will roll in over the next few days
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
Oh, that’s better then.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
If Dems did similarly - they would be crucified. Recrimination is completely asymmetrical - why
https://twitter.com/mmpadellan/status/1637552516601618432?s=20
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
Crony QE capitalism. It neefs to end.
Robert Reich (@[email protected])
Don't be distracted. The big story isn't "woke capitalism." It's crony capitalism that allows the wealthy and corporations to roll back laws to line their own pockets.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12
Governments hiring Dan - UsaJobs
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Lev Parnass destroying all the MAGA narratives on this space - love it
ttps://twitter.com/i/spaces/1ZkKzXOXajXJv
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Ok Yuki- it’s game on!! 🇺🇸🇯🇵⚾️⚾️⚾️🧢🏟️
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
Dan, offer to represent her pro bono- this could be your first “starter marriage” —
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12
The guy who runs the largest Twitter space
https://youtu.be/SAi99ov5OKM
https://youtu.be/Ol8-h8WGyFo
Follow the Money - The Mario Nawfal Files - Part 1
@johnserwach @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 the number of con artists operating in daylight and being accepted into high society is staggering. That video is shocking.
@plutus @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
Does a Serow shit in the woods??
Speaking of, so we all in agreement, 25 points tomorrow ?
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance
You can thank Danny (direct red phone to the WH) for advising them to pull the plug
@ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 @plutus
Dan- how’s the stone? Let’s start a non profit—-
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
I don't feel anything. I told you last week
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
No recession yet. 300 dollar day again
@rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance @plutus
You said you “thought “ it had passed- thats not the same as “yes, it has passed”- nevertheless, glad you are well.
@johnserwach @plutus @ForeignSubstance
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CpxslsbD9zs/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=
Jake Looser - Stonebrook RE on Instagram: "And just like that the supply for residential homes got even lower 😂 #realtorlife #homebuyer #homeseller #realestate #luxuryrealestate #realtor #utahrealtor #utahrealestate #realtorsofinstagram #realestatememes #wolfofwallstreet #mortgagerates"
20K Likes, 580 Comments - Jake Looser - Stonebrook RE (@realestatewithjake) on Instagram: "And just like that the supply for residential homes got even lower 😂 #realtorlife #homebuyer ..."
@plutus @ForeignSubstance @rubecube12 don’t wait for orders from Washington- mount your horses and ride to the sound of the guns!!
@ForeignSubstance @johnserwach @plutus
Counterstrike imminent https://newsie.social/@RupertCocke/110072478638244925
Rupert Cocke (@[email protected])
#Ukraine troops plan counterstrike https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/2390654-russias-war-on-ukraine-latest-ukrainian-troops-plan-counterstrike
@plutus @johnserwach @ForeignSubstance
@plutus Tell Luke Groman and Sean Russia is in a massive economic recession. Still waiting for the US job losses that he said would result
@rubecube12 @plutus @ForeignSubstance
I’m concerned Ukraine might not have sufficient ammunition to mount a sustained counter attack. Which is bizarre that we have gone thru so much ammo after preparing for 50 years for WWIII
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus After 1991, no one thought "the commies are coming thru the Fulda Gap". Javelins came just after that date, and not in huge bulk, plus they've been improved since.
Few imagined years of artillery duels, cuz the thinking was it would turn into missiles before that much time elapsed.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @plutus The situation is not good at all. Even raw Russian conscripts can build defensive positions, and in depth. See, Kursk, battle of.
Aid is insufficient, and late. Little or no striking into Russia. I'm sorry, you cannot win this way with limited manpower to boot.
Best chance? Prolly to lure RA into an ill-advised advance & then win a huge battle of maneuver.
Meanwhile, UA bleeds.
@ForeignSubstance @plutus @rubecube12
I think the problem with the aid is the way we have slowly ratcheted up more advanced systems. Russia OTOH seems to have a severe manpower problem. Of course having had this discussion the Uk will probably launch a massive assault and retake crimea. Proving us both wrong again.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 I would put the odds of a successful assault on Crimea at < 5%. Yes, UA dramatically overperformed when Russia was dreaming about spring-2022 parades in Kyiv. Russia has cannon fodder. UA does not. The "manpower problem" is on the UA side.
I'd love to be wrong about this. But I really doubt that will be the case.
@johnserwach @plutus @rubecube12 And we agree about the aid. I said "insufficient, and late".
UA needs to kill about 8 Russians for every UA soldier lost. Three isn't going to make it, and it's likely they are not getting even that. We don't know, because sensibly, UA won't say.
@johnserwach @rubecube12 @ForeignSubstance basis… don’t think it matters; it’s how he sounds in the presser - need contrition; humility; self- reflection - lol