Jay RosenMar 21, 2023

"Not the odds, but the stakes."

That's my shorthand for the organizing principle we most need in journalists covering the 2024 campaign. Not who has what chances of winning, but the consequences for American democracy.

Not the odds, but the stakes.

Here's the New York Times with what I mean by the odds:

"Can Mr. Trump show enough restraint to persuade moderate Republicans and independent swing voters to choose him over President Biden in 2024?" https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/21/us/politics/trump-2024-campaign-indictment.html

#journalism #uspol

Trump’s Potential Indictment Could Alienate Some G.O.P. Voters in 2024

The former president strengthened his political position in recent weeks, but an impetuous response to his potential indictment could alienate voters he will need to win back the White House.

The New York Times
Show threadNitin Borwankar

@jayrosen_nyu @brendannyhan mathematically speaking “expectation not probability” also applicable to “house prices will never fall”—-> 2008 crisis, “interest rates will not rise” —> 2023 bank failures

“impact not likelihood”

Mar 22, 2023 at 8:59pmWeb