Mastodawn

Another long 🧵 on #COVID19 status & risks. I was inspired as a result of traveling this week. It's simply astonishing how many people are pretending the risks are the same as they were in 2019. While COVID isn't likely to swamp hospitals as it did in 2020 and 2021, we still face significant health threats that should not be ignored. You don't need to isolate, but there's a wealth of things you can do between the two extremes of locking yourself at home and pretending COVID risks don't exist.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

A recent CDC report on COVID as a cause of death noted: “Emerging evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, can have lasting effects on nearly every organ and organ system of the body weeks, months, and potentially years after infection. Documented serious post-COVID-19 conditions include cardiovascular, pulmonary, neurological, renal, endocrine, hematological, and gastrointestinal complications, as well as death.”
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

(Despite the voluminous evidence that COVID is more a hazard of longer-term complications than severe, acute illness, the CDC continues to emphasize the Community Levels map, which is only based on hospitalizations, rather than the Transmission map. Currently, the Community map is mostly green, but two-thirds of the US remains in the high or substantial transmission level.)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

A recent report from DHS notes: “COVID-19 symptoms commonly persist for weeks to months after initial onset in up to 73% of those infected. In a cohort of COVID-19 patients, 39% reported symptoms 7-9 months after initial infection. One year after intensive care unit (ICU) admission for COVID-19, lingering physical (74% of 246 ICU patients), mental (26%), and cognitive (16%) symptoms were common, with 58% of patients experiencing issues with returning fully to work.”
https://www.dhs.gov/publication/st-master-question-list-covid-19

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

Dr. Leora Horwitz, of NYU Langone, was interviewed on NPR and said, “It's clearly a meaningful proportion of people who originally get COVID who go on to still have symptoms months later... We don't know very much yet about treating it. Right now, people are mostly treating the symptoms... I think it is important that we learn how to live with a virus that's never going to go away. But I think what that means is trying to minimize our risk.”
https://www.npr.org/2023/03/11/1162836454/heres-what-we-know-about-long-covid-and-its-treatment

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

The AMA notes reinfection risks: “Each subsequent COVID infection will increase your risk of developing chronic health issues like diabetes, kidney disease, organ failure and even mental health problems... This dispels the myth that repeated brushes with the virus are mild and you don’t have to worry about it. The more times you get COVID, the more likely you are going to get a possible complication, be it lung complication, heart complication or mental health problems.”
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/what-doctors-wish-patients-knew-about-covid-19-reinfection

What doctors wish patients knew about COVID-19 reinfection

Newer COVID-19 variants are contributing to second or even third SARS-CoV-2 infections. Learn how to avoid the worse outcomes linked to reinfection.

American Medical Association

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

One recent study (see image) found that, compared with those who hadn't had #COVID19, patients with post-COVID Condition (PCC) had double the risk of asthma, COPD, and heart failure and more than double the risk of stroke and cardiac arrhythmia.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2802095

One-Year Adverse Outcomes Among US Adults With Post–COVID-19 Condition vs Those Without COVID-19

This cohort study aims to quantify 1-year outcomes among individuals meeting a post–COVID-19 condition definition compared with a control group of individuals without COVID-19.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

In fact, the number of studies that find #COVID19 can have longer-term effects on brains, hearts, immune systems, reproductive systems, and cause other health impairments is now approaching almost 200 in number.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit?usp=sharing

COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 Studies

Google Docs

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

The WHO continues to urge masking, saying we should, “Make wearing a mask a normal part of being around other people.” It states you should #WearAMask “When in a crowded, enclosed or poorly ventilation area. If you have any doubts regarding the quality of ventilation, wear a mask.” None of us are truly certain about the quality of ventilation in the conference rooms, theaters, airports, and trains we're in, so that means we should be wearing a mask.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/when-and-how-to-use-masks

When and how to use masks

WHO's guidance and advice on the use of masks to protect against and limit the spread of COVID-19.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

On planes, there is this belief that air quality is better, and it is--once in the air! But during boarding, taxiing and deplaning, the amount of rebreathed air is very high, which means viral transmission can be great. A study several months ago found 81% of international flights at JFK had toilet samples positive for COVID. You should assume any sufficiently crowded plane (or conference room or bus) has someone with #COVID19 and act accordingly.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/are-planes-as-covid-safe-as-the-airlines-say-1.4485547

Are planes as Covid-safe as the airlines say?

Boarding, disembarking and passport control appear the big risks

The Irish Times

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

A word on masking: For weeks, the media has been full of headlines about a supposed “gold standard” study in the Cochrane Review that found masks don't work. It was a ridiculous finding on the face of it, and the criticism of the study's methodology and authors was immediate. Now, in fact, the Cochrane Review itself has made a statement indicating that the study and its findings were “misinterpreted.”

https://www.cochrane.org/news/statement-physical-interventions-interrupt-or-reduce-spread-respiratory-viruses-review

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/10/opinion/masks-work-cochrane-study.html

Statement on 'Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses' review

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

COVID is not anywhere near done evolving. New variants are emerging after XBB.1.5. No one is sure what the next variant will be to knock down XBB.1.5, but XBB has spread so widely and mutated so rapidly, scientists ran out of characters. New descendants are named things like EK.2, and many have more immune-evasive attributes than any variant we've yet seen. (It's too early to say, but the EK variants are showing an almost 50% growth advantage in the very early going.)
https://cov-spectrum.org/explore/World/AllSamples/Past6M/variants?nextcladePangoLineage=EK*&

covSPECTRUM

covSPECTRUM is an interactive platform aiming to help scientists investigate and identify variants of SARS-CoV-2.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

Meanwhile, we are less able to track and stay informed of how COVID is changing. Johns Hopkins stopped COVID tracking, and the UK ONS survey says it will end this month. Governments and institutions are ending COVID monitoring despite WHO advising against this. Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO's COVID-19 Technical Lead, just tweeted a thread saying, “Governments need to be vigilant. Do not let down your guard. Do not dismantle systems.” But, no one is listening.
https://twitter.com/mvankerkhove/status/1634485429465407488

تغريدة / Twitter

Twitter

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

You should continue to monitor whatever you can to get a sense of risks in your area. At best, assuming you can pretend we're as safe as we were in 2019 is idiotic. At worse, new #COVID19 mutations and the continued problems of reinfections should encourage a lot more safety than I observe in the real world or in social media.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

It really is long past time to normalize wearing masks in public, and governments are ignoring their obligation to change rules to match the change in risks we face with a future of endemic COVID. Until the world catches up to those additional risks, please be safe--if not for you, then for those around you.

Many may get through the coming years unscathed, but some will live with serious health issues and diminished quality of life because they refused to take the most modest of precautions.

Agent Joséphine Baker Mar 12, 2023

@augieray thank you very much!

FreebirdFrolic Mar 12, 2023

@augieray
In Canada, you can consult, The Canadian Covid Hazard Index. Updated stats on Fridays.

@MoriartyLab
Our Canadian Treasure.
https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

Tara Moriarty Apr 2, 2023

To clarify, stats are normally updated by very, very late Friday night, and the new COVID forecast is ready by Saturday. We've had a really tough month (work deadlines for me, change in model we use), but we're back on schedule again. I'm so sorry for falling down on the job, but we're back to full functioning again.

FreebirdFrolic Apr 2, 2023

@MoriartyLab @augieray

Please don't apologize!! We are very fortunate to have you!

Carlos Guerreiro Mar 12, 2023

@augieray

In some places there is still some wastewater monitoring.

For instance, for Finland:
https://www.thl.fi/episeuranta/jatevesi/jatevesiseuranta_viikkoraportti.html

I'm not paying much attention to case numbers because there isn't much testing any more, but wastewater still gives us an idea of the prevalence of infection (with caveats).

For Finland, wastewater shows steady growth from July 2022 to the end of the 2022 and then a plateau. The discontinuity in the plot is caused by a change in treatment, so measurements are not directly comparable, but there is no particular reason to see a drastic change at that discontinuity.

So basically we are in a high plateau of infection.
And in terms of hospitalised patients we are not far from the absolute peak which was reached in late March 2022 and then repeated in early November 2022 (OWID)

It's been permanently bad with such consistency that typically I just assume it's bad without bothering to check.

Voron Mar 12, 2023

@augieray nah, it’s only peoples lives and health, if we keep tracking Covid it will keep it in consumers minds and effect wealthy shareholders profits through reduced consumption etc
“Profits over people”

Catchingmybreath Mar 12, 2023

@augieray she was brutal in the beginning and was part of the problem of misinformation and downplaying the risks, wouldn’t say airborne. People have tuned her and the WHO out. This has to come from our municipal leaders but they now down to the province. Fringe minority got their way with their violence and convoys.

FreebirdFrolic Mar 12, 2023

https://universeodon.com/@mlk/110010452660619918

FreebirdFrolic (@[email protected])

Attached: 1 image @[email protected] In Canada, you can consult, The Canadian Covid Hazard Index. Updated stats on Fridays. @[email protected] Our Canadian Treasure. https://covid19resources.ca/covid-hazard-index/

Universeodon Social Media

Jim Goodall Mar 12, 2023

@augieray Just got my FIFTH booster shot! Nobody's thinking about COVID anymore, which is why I'm thinking about it, now.

Agent Joséphine Baker Mar 12, 2023

@jimgoodall @augieray same here

skua Mar 13, 2023

@jimgoodall @augieray
Taking a contrarian approach, hey.

Makes a lot of sense.

I like it.

Hash Mar 12, 2023

@augieray
Talk about how to improve natural immunity. Not covid.
Being born means exposed to gazillion organisms.

Augie Ray Mar 12, 2023

@Hash I have no idea what that means. We know immunity to COVID (both from vaccines and prior infection) fades. We've known this for years now. There is no natural immunity to COVID--at least not complete or permanent.

J.H.Noyes Mar 12, 2023

My son's first Covid infection was the result of my dickhead father-in-law refusing to wear a mask on a 40 minute flight. Presumably my first too, though I only had a sore throat for a day. This stuff is pretty sneaky.

nadin brzezinski Mar 12, 2023

@augieray @RandomCanuck of all these planes are the least problematic…wear a mask anyway.

Roadskater, Ph.D.Mar 16, 2023

@augieray I've gotten erratic about wearing a mask of late, which depending on "conditions", my judgment may fail. But it's been several months since I got the side-eye and an explicit question why I wear a mask.

kira :3 Mar 16, 2023

@augieray The WHO might have dragged their feet at times but at least their messaging isn't maliciously misleading like the CDC's is

Ænðr E. Feldstraw Mar 16, 2023

@augieray Yes! Here's me on the bus, masked because there's too many people and too few are masked.

Aday Mar 17, 2023

@augieray thank you for this thread, it is very necessary. I find myself traveling and thinking the same: People just pretend it’s over, but it’ll take more than pretending.

However, you mention that “WHO continues to urge masking” while the link attached states: “Last updated December 2021”.

That statement can be deceiving. Is it based on something else or a more recent communication from WHO that I’m missing?

Thanks!

Augie Ray Mar 17, 2023

@Aday There is nothing "deceiving" about sharing the current WHO guidance, no matter when it was last updated. But, if you click to the Q&A section, it was updated in January and provides the same guidance on masks: https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-masks

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19): Masks

Updated 13 January 2023

Aday Mar 17, 2023

@augieray probably deceiving is not the word I was looking for, but I'm happy to see they indeed continue recommending it 😄

Thank you for sharing that 🙂

Voron Mar 12, 2023

@augieray in America, Facts are immaterial when they challenge the short term quarterly profits of the wealthiest 10% who own 70% of all stocks & wield more influence over government policy than the other 90% of Americans

Andreas Plach Mar 12, 2023

@augieray
Tank you for sharing this excellent collection of evidence.

Threadbane Mar 12, 2023

@augieray
Interesting. Based on previous stats I've seen, this probably closely matches Republican versus Democratic county-by-country voting map.