Here is how #platforms die: first, they are good to their users; then they abuse their users to make things better for their business customers; finally, they abuse those business customers to claw back all the value for themselves. Then, they die.
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
https://pluralistic.net/2023/01/21/potemkin-ai/#hey-guys
1/
I call this #enshittification, and it is a seemingly inevitable consequence arising from the combination of the ease of changing how a platform allocates value, combined with the nature of a "two sided market," where a platform sits between buyers and sellers, hold each hostage to the other, raking off an ever-larger share of the value that passes between them.
2/
When a platform starts, it needs users, so it makes itself valuable to users. Think of #Amazon: for many years, it operated at a loss, using its access to the capital markets to subsidize everything you bought. It sold goods below cost *and* shipped them below cost. It operated a clean and useful search. If you searched for a product, Amazon tried its damndest to put it at the top of the search results.
3/
This was a hell of a good deal for Amazon's customers. Lots of us piled in, and lots of brick-and-mortar retailers withered and died, making it hard to go elsewhere. Amazon sold us ebooks and audiobooks that were permanently locked to its platform with DRM, so that every dollar we spent on media was a dollar we'd have to give up if we deleted Amazon and its apps.
4/
And Amazon sold us Prime, getting us to pre-pay for a year's worth of shipping. Prime customers start their shopping on Amazon, and 90% of the time, they don't search anywhere else.
That tempted in lots of business customers - Marketplace sellers who turned Amazon into the #EverythingStore it had promised from the beginning. As these sellers piled in, Amazon shifted to subsidizing suppliers. Kindle and Audible creators got generous packages.
5/
Marketplace sellers reached huge audiences and Amazon took low commissions from them.
This strategy meant that it became progressively harder for shoppers to find things anywhere except Amazon, which meant that they only searched on Amazon, which meant that sellers *had* to sell on Amazon.
6/
That's when Amazon started to harvest the surplus from its business customers and send it to Amazon's shareholders. Today, Marketplace sellers are handing 45%+ of the sale price to Amazon in junk fees. The company's $31b "advertising" program is really a payola scheme that pits sellers against each other, forcing them to bid on the chance to be at the top of your search.
7/
Searching Amazon doesn't produce a list of the products that most closely match your search, it brings up a list of products whose sellers have paid the most to be at the top of that search. Those fees are built into the cost you pay for the product, and Amazon's "Most Favored Nation" requirement sellers means that they can't sell more cheaply elsewhere, so Amazon has driven prices at *every* retailer.
8/
Search Amazon for "cat beds" and the entire first screen is ads, including ads for products Amazon cloned from its own sellers, putting them out of business (third parties have to pay 45% in #JunkFees to Amazon, but Amazon doesn't charge itself these fees). All told, the first five screens of results for "cat bed" are 50% ads.
https://pluralistic.net/2022/11/28/enshittification/#relentless-payola
9/
This is enshittification: surpluses are first directed to users; then, once they're locked in, surpluses go to suppliers; then once *they're* locked in, the surplus is handed to shareholders and the platform becomes a useless pile of shit. From mobile app stores to Steam, from Facebook to Twitter, this is the enshittification lifecycle.
10/
This is why - as @catvalente wrote in her magesterial pre-Christmas essay - platforms like #Prodigy transformed themselves overnight, from a place where you went for social connection to a place where you were expected to "stop talking to each other and start buying things":
https://catvalente.substack.com/p/stop-talking-to-each-other-and-start
This shell-game with surpluses is what happened to Facebook. First, Facebook was good to you: it showed you the things the people you loved and cared about had to say.
11/
This created a kind of mutual hostage-taking: once a critical mass of people you cared about were on Facebook, it became effectively impossible to leave, because you'd have to convince all of them to leave too, and agree on where to go. You may love your friends, but half the time you can't agree on what movie to see and where to go for dinner. Forget it.
12/
Then, it started to cram your feed full of posts from accounts you didn't follow. At first, it was media companies, who Facebook preferentially crammed down its users' throats so that they would click on articles and send traffic to newspapers, magazines and blogs.
Then, once those publications were dependent on Facebook for their traffic, it dialed down their traffic.
13/
First, it choked off traffic to publications that used Facebook to run excerpts with links to their own sites, as a way of driving publications into supplying fulltext feeds inside Facebook's walled garden.
This made publications truly dependent on Facebook - their readers no longer visited the publications' websites, they just tuned into them on Facebook. The publications were hostage to those readers, who were hostage to each other.
14/
Facebook stopped showing readers the articles publications ran, tuning #TheAlgorithm to suppress posts from publications unless they paid to "boost" their articles to the readers who had *explicitly subscribed to them and asked Facebook to put them in their feeds.*
Now, Facebook started to cram more ads into the feed, mixing payola from people you wanted to hear from with payola from strangers who wanted to commandeer your eyeballs.
15/
It gave those advertisers a great deal, charging a pittance to target ads based on the dossiers of nonconsensually harvested personal data they'd stolen from you.
Sellers became dependent on Facebook, too, unable to carry on business without access to those targeted pitches. That was Facebook's cue to jack up ad prices, stop worrying so much about ad fraud, and to collude with Google to rig the ad market through an illegal program called #JediBlue:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jedi_Blue
16/
Today, Facebook is terminally enshittified, a terrible place to be whether you're a user, a media company, *or* an advertiser. It's a company that deliberately *demolished* a huge fraction of the publishers it relied on, defrauding them into a #PivotToVideo based on false claims of the popularity of video among Facebook users. Companies threw billions into the pivot, but the viewers never materialized, and media outlets folded in droves:
https://slate.com/technology/2018/10/facebook-online-video-pivot-metrics-false.html
17/
But Facebook has a new pitch. It claims to be called #Meta, and it has demanded that we live out the rest of our days as legless, sexless, heavily surveilled low-poly cartoon characters.
It has promised companies that make apps for this #metaverse that it won't rug them the way it did the publishers on the old Facebook. It remains to be seen whether they'll get any takers.
18/
As Mark Zuckerberg once candidly confessed to a peer, marvelling at all of his fellow Harvard students who sent their personal information to his new website "TheFacebook":
> I don’t know why.
> They "trust me"
> Dumb fucks.
https://doctorow.medium.com/metaverse-means-pivot-to-video-adbe09319038
Once you understand the enshittification pattern, a lot of the platform mysteries solve themselves.
19/
Think of the #SEO market, or the whole energetic world of online creators who spend endless hours engaged in useless #PlatformKremlinology, hoping to locate the algorithmic tripwires, which, if crossed, doom the creative works they pour their money, time and energy into:
https://pluralistic.net/2022/04/11/coercion-v-cooperation/#the-machine-is-listening
20/
Working for the platform can be like working for a boss who takes money out of every paycheck for all the rules you broke, but who won't tell you what those rules are because if he told you that, then you'd figure out how to break those rules without him noticing and docking your pay. #ContentModeration is the only domain where #SecurityThroughObscurity is considered a best practice:
https://doctorow.medium.com/como-is-infosec-307f87004563
21/
The situation is so dire that organizations like Tracking Exposed have enlisted an human army of volunteers and a robot army of headless browsers to try to unwind the logic behind the arbitrary machine judgments of The Algorithm, both to give users the option to tune the recommendations they receive, and to help creators avoid the #WageTheft that comes from being #ShadowBanned:
https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2022/05/tracking-exposed-demanding-gods-explain-themselves
22/
Imagine if your boss made up hundreds of petty rules and refused to disclose them, but every week, your pay was docked based on how many of those rules you broke. When you’re an online creator and your “boss” is a giant social media platform, that’s exactly how your compensation works.“Algospeak”...
But what if there is no underlying logic? Or, more to the point, what if the logic shifts based on the platform's priorities? If you go down to the midway at your county fair, you'll spot some poor sucker walking around all day with a giant teddy bear that they won by throwing three balls in a peach basket.
The peach-basket is a rigged game. The carny can use a hidden switch to force the balls to bounce out of the basket.
22/
No one wins a giant teddy bear unless the carny *wants* them to win it. Why did the carny let the sucker win the giant teddy bear? So that he'd carry it around all day, convincing other suckers to put down five bucks for their chance to win one:
https://boingboing.net/2006/08/27/rigged-carny-game.html
23/
The carny allocated a giant teddy bear to that poor sucker the way that platforms allocate surpluses to key performers - as a convincer in a #BigStoreCon, a way to rope in other suckers who'll make content for the platform, anchoring themselves and their audiences to it.
Which brings me to #Tiktok. Tiktok is many different things, including "a free Adobe Premiere for teenagers that live on their phones."
https://www.garbageday.email/p/the-fragments-of-media-you-consume
24/
But what made it such a success early on was the power of its recommendation system. From the start, Tiktok was really, really good at recommending things to its users. *Eerily* good:
https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1093882880
By making good-faith recommendations of things it thought its users would like, Tiktok built a mass audience, larger than many thought possible, given the death grip of its competitors, like Youtube and Instagram.
25/
Now Tiktok has the audience, it's consolidating its gains, seeking to lure away the companies and creators who are still stubbornly attached to YT and IG.
Yesterday, Forbes's Emily Baker-White broke a story about how that actually works inside of #Bytedance, Tiktok's parent company, citing multiple internal sources, revealing the existence of a "heating tool" that Tiktok employees use push videos from select accounts into millions of viewers' feeds:
26/
These videos go into Tiktok users' #ForYou feeds, which Tiktok misleadingly describes as being populated by videos "ranked by an algorithm that predicts your interests based on your behavior in the app." In reality, For You is only sometimes composed of videos that Tiktok thinks will add value to your experience - the rest of the time, it's full of videos that Tiktok has inserted in order to make creators think that Tiktok is a great place to reach an audience.
27/
"Sources told Forbes that TikTok has often used heating to court influencers and brands, enticing them into partnerships by inflating their videos’ view count. This suggests that heating has potentially benefitted some influencers and brands — those with whom TikTok has sought business relationships — at the expense of others with whom it has not."
In other words, Tiktok is handing out giant teddy bears.
28/
But Tiktok is not in the business of giving away giant teddy bears. Tiktok, for all that its origins are in the quasi-capitalist Chinese economy, is just another paperclip-maximizing artificial colony organism that treats human beings as inconvenient gut flora. Tiktok is only going to funnel free attention to the people it wants to entrap until they are entrapped, then it will withdraw that attention and begin to #monetize it.
29/
"Monetize" is a terrible word that tacitly admits that there is no such thing as an "AttentionEconomy." You can't use attention as a medium of exchange, as a store of value.or as a unit of account. Attention is like #cryptocurrency: a worthless token that is only valuable to the extent that you can trick or coerce someone into parting with "fiat" currency in exchange for it. You have to "monetize" it - that is, you have to exchange the fake money for real money.
30/
In the case of #cryptos, the main monetization strategy was deception-based. Exchanges and "projects" handed out a bunch of giant teddy-bears, creating an army of true-believer Judas goats who convinced their peers to hand the carny their money and try to get some balls into the peach-basket themselves.
But deception only produces so much #LiquidityProvision. Eventually, you run out of suckers. To get *lots* of people to try the ball-toss, you need coercion, not persuasion.
31/
Think of how US companies ended the #DefinedBenefitsPension that guaranteed you a dignified retirement, replacing it with market-based #401K pensions that forced you to gamble your savings in a rigged casino, making you the sucker at the table, ripe for the picking:
https://pluralistic.net/2020/07/25/derechos-humanos/#are-there-no-poorhouses
32/
Early crypto liquidity came from #ransomware. The existence of a pool of desperate, panicked companies and individuals whose data had been stolen by criminals created a baseline of crypto liquidity because they could only get their data back by trading real money for fake crypto money.
The next phase of crypto coercion was #Web3: converting the web into a series of tollbooths that you could only pass through by trading real money for fake crypto money.
33/
The internet is a must-have, not a nice-to-have, a prerequisite for full participation in employment, education, family life, health, politics, civics, even romance. By holding all those things to ransom behind crypto tollbooths, the #hodlers hoped to convert their tokens to real money:
https://locusmag.com/2022/09/cory-doctorow-moneylike/
34/
Cory Doctorow
