Augie RayJan 19, 2023

A #COVID19 update for the weekend:

- COVID risks are moderate in the US right now. The CDC's transmission map shows 71% of the US at the highest level of COVID transmission, but its community level map only has 14% of the US in the High category. (The community level map feels like the wrong tool for the wrong time--it only turns red when hospitals fill up WITH COVID, but the primary risk isn't acute illness but long-term risks of repeated COVID infections.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=Risk

COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- If you're in the mid-Atlantic or Southeast US, you should be masking in crowds. Even by the lax standards of the CDC's community levels map, everyone in metropolitan New York City, New Jersey, Delaware, and much of Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina should be masking (not to mentions portions of other southern and Midwestern states.) https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023

- And, if you followed WHO guidance, which changed this past week, you'd be masking EVERYWHERE without regard for current COVID status. Its guidance is masks “for anyone in a crowded, enclosed, or poorly ventilated space.” https://www.who.int/news/item/13-01-2023-who-updates-covid-19-guidelines-on-masks--treatments-and-patient-care

- The trends right now in the US all point to a better week ahead. COVID in wastewater is declining. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#wastewater-surveillance

WHO updates COVID-19 guidelines on masks, treatments and patient care

The update is part of a continuous process of reviewing such materials, working with guideline development groups composed of independent, international experts.

Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- However, we should not expect that to continue. XBB.1.5 continues to grow rapidly in the US, and in states where it became predominant last month, it caused significant rises in infections and hospitalizations. (It could be that lower post-holiday travel and crowds will prevent a rapid surge, but that will only slow, not prevent this variant's spread). https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions
COVID Data Tracker

CDC’s home for COVID-19 data. Visualizations, graphs, and data in one easy-to-use website.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- We must take the long-term risks of repeated COVID infections more seriously. A new study found that “Long COVID is associated with all ages and acute phase disease severities, with the highest percentage of diagnoses between the ages of 36 and 50 years, and most long COVID cases are in non-hospitalized patients with a mild acute illness.” It concludes, “a significant proportion of individuals with long COVID may have lifelong disabilities if no action is taken.” https://www.nature.com/articles/s41579-022-00846-2
Long COVID: major findings, mechanisms and recommendations - Nature Reviews Microbiology

Long COVID is an often debilitating illness of severe symptoms that can develop during or following COVID-19. In this Review, Davis, McCorkell, Vogel and Topol explore our knowledge of long COVID and highlight key findings, including potential mechanisms, the overlap with other conditions and potential treatments. They also discuss challenges and recommendations for long COVID research and care.

Nature
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- To add more to that, another recent study found that people with COVID-19 have continued risks AFTER the acute state. Those who are 21 days or more post-diagnosis have a 40% higher risk of cardiovascular disease and a 500% higher risk of all-cause mortality. https://academic.oup.com/cardiovascres/advance-article/doi/10.1093/cvr/cvac195/6987834
Association of COVID-19 with short- and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: a prospective cohort in UK Biobank

AbstractAims. This study aims to evaluate the short- and long-term associations between COVID-19 and development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and mo

OUP Academic
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- There are even more concerning variants being monitored. Sweden is seeing an explosion of COVID deaths--it's 3rd-highest surge of the pandemic. We don't know why. It may be that a new variant, XBF, is growing rapidly and possibly increasing fatality rate. It's too early to know, but the risk of a more deadly variant persists as we continue to encourage too much transmission and spread. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&facet=none&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=false&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~SWE
COVID-19 Data Explorer

Explore global data on COVID-19.

Our World in Data
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- China deserves a mention. The situation there will grow even more dire due to the lunar new year. Data is thin, and the official data is not accurate. Experts expect China will see 36,000 deaths daily in the coming weeks. (The prior worldwide peak in early 2021 was less than 15,000.) Still, the risks China poses the rest of the planet seem modest; the variants causing this surge are not a risk in nations with high rates of prior infection and immunity protection.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-18/china-s-covid-deaths-to-peak-at-36-000-a-day-over-lunar-new-year-analysts
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
- The World Economic Forum is underway in Davos right now. It's worth mentioning for one very specific reason--world leaders, when they gather, are taking COVID very seriously. Their badges won't activate to permit access without a negative PCR test. Photos of event spaces show high-quality commercial HEPA 13 air filters. Some crowded events are masked. And there's been reports of UVGI lights in meeting rooms.
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
The world and business leaders see their lives as worth protecting, yet they've extended few of these same protections to classrooms, conference rooms, offices, and event venues. Which is more important to you--the life of your spouse or child or the life of your CEO or senator? Then why voluntarily accept the COVID risks of crowded spaces that your leaders recognize and refuse to take for themselves? https://twitter.com/KashPrime/status/1615745744673148929/photo/1
Kashif Pirzada, MD on Twitter

“The world's elite at the Davos forum are enjoying every possible protection from Covid, including PCR testing, air filtration, UVGI light. Why isn't this being offered to everyone else? Every school, every workplace should have the same protections as the rich and powerful.”

Twitter
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023
BOTTOM LINE: COVID risks are certainly less than they have been, but the risks of repeated infections in a population with waning immunity is still significant. I'd urge some caution. That doesn't mean isolating, but it should mean that you consider masks and avoiding crowds if you can.
Show threadAugie RayJan 19, 2023

A personal postscript:
My wife and I went out to eat for our first meal in a restaurant in six weeks last night, since COVID risks are declining presently in Ireland. Even with a lower COVID threat, we ate early to avoid crowds; we shared the restaurant with just four other customers.

We will take measured risks based on the current COVID status in our area. You do you, but if we all had a little more awareness and caution, we'd save lives, prevent mass disability, and protect the economy.

Show threadSean D

@augieray I've been using hospitality establishments for a while (and haven't caught Covid yet). Simple things such as avoiding peak times like Saturday night, picking places with open windows or sitting outside (moreso in Summer) etc probably do help quite a bit.

I'm taking precautions such that if I catch Covid it will be doing something I enjoy such as eating a nice meal. Not something like travelling on a bus, walking around a supermarket etc.

Jan 19, 2023 at 3:58pmWeb