PwnallthethingsDec 21, 2022
CNN with an early look at what to expect in Zelensky's speech https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-12-21-22/h_d9706c8f4cdc7a4e15a637ca1df58250
Show threadPwnallthethings

So putting my guessing hat on; it'll cover:

* Radiation/nuclear safety
* Indefinite extension of Grain Deal
* Price restrictions on Russian energy
* Release of prisoners and deportees -- POWs; forcible deportees; children
* Restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity
* Withdrawal of Russian forces
* Reparations for damages to be paid by Russia
* Funding and technology to restore damaged infrastructure and offset environmental damage
* Effective security guarantees (the Kyiv Security Compact)

Dec 22, 2022 at 12:00amWeb
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
I strongly suspect neither he nor the WH expect reciprocation from R MFA (tho curious if they'll even get to meetings); but US has been pushing pretty hard for UA to at least publicly appear open to a peace deal to offset Russian propaganda and some US/Global concerns that a peace deal would be available, but for UA/US "obstruction"
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
If you're looking for the long-form of why all this is going on, why nobody in US/UA leadership think it's going anywhere, and why they're having to publicly do it anyway, I wrote it in much longer form here https://www.pwnallthethings.com/p/the-war-will-end-with-diplomacy-but
The war will end with Diplomacy. But here's why it won't be soon.

Peace in this war isn't close. And premature calls for diplomacy push it further away. Instead, the West needs to provide credible public commitments to arm Ukraine, and long-term support to get peace

PwnAllTheThings
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
(the tl;dr is that the Russian build-up in the past few months very strongly indicate zero interest in a long-term peace agreement at anything like their current positions, and are all-in on a medium-term reconstitution and new push against Ukraine early next year; so any peace deal would be at best very temporary)
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
For those who think R won't accept these terms, first of all, duh, but second of all the Russian terms (according to Peskov) are still maximalist and unchanged from their late March position, except that they *also* now include permanently ceding annexed territories, including the parts of them that are not under Russian control. So both UA and R are stating terms that both understand the other can't accept (i.e. a workable peace isn't yet remotely close)
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
There is a danger in the US' plan to obfuscate this point; as it has the habit of encouraging hardliners in R to think UA support is weakening; encouraging UA allies to avoid long-term contingency planning; and encouraging public apathy and demoralization when the peace doesn't quickly materialize, despite it never having been seriously available.
Show threadreally? why?Dec 22, 2022

@Pwnallthethings putin knows to look like he intends to fight on, even if he were desperate for a way out

in 2023 he certainly fears:
• ukraine continuing to get more effective and kick the shit out of russia
• loss of the war
• weakened hold on power

of course they are planning to ramp up next year: they are forced to. because russia is losing ground, etc. they need to ramp up just in hopes of not continuing to lose ground. just hoping to slow the loss, and hoping to stop the momentum.

Show threadWurstsemmel 🕊🇺🇦 #SlavaUkraïniDec 22, 2022
@Pwnallthethings So putting your guessing hat on, CNN's assumptions are pure bullshit. 🤷‍♂️😉
Show threadJoxean Koret (@matalaz)Dec 22, 2022

@Pwnallthethings Is this supposed to be part of any kind of negotiation with Russia? There is no way the Russian Federation government would ever accept any of these 3 points at this stage:

* Restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity
* Withdrawal of Russian forces
* Reparations for damages to be paid by Russia

Unless they are totally & absolutelly defeated.

Don't get me wrong, cool if it happens, but is naïve.

Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 22, 2022
@joxean Sometimes it's important to make the offer, even if you know it'll be rejected
Show threadJordan WiensDec 22, 2022

@Pwnallthethings @joxean Just like the russian offers so far have been equally unlikely. Just part of negotiating.

If one party starts at their full extreme of everything they want full of things the other side can't accept and the other starts with a real offer that could have a chance already full of compromises, you're not going to negotiate to something in the middle between the two positions but something very skewed toward one side.

Show threadAlexander RutholDec 22, 2022
@Pwnallthethings
* Guarantees that Ukraine never joins NATO.
* Guarantees that Ukraine never joins EU.
* Recognition of Russian ownership of Crimea and Donbas.
Show threadsaltDec 22, 2022
@Pwnallthethings is there a specific border line in mind for what "restoration of territorial integrity" means? e.g. feb 23 lines vs 2014 lines vs something else?