Elaine ParkerDec 15, 2022
Scalzi

This is the biggest news on the planet right now, although I understand how most folks don't think so yet. But it has the potential to be literally world changing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/12/11/fusion-nuclear-energy-breakthrough/

U.S. to announce fusion energy ‘breakthrough’

Scientists hit a key milestone in the quest to create abundant zero-carbon power through nuclear fusion. But they still have a long way to go.

The Washington Post
Dec 12, 2022 at 4:01pmWeb
Show threadDavid L BarackDec 12, 2022
@scalzi Yep
Show thread[email protected] migraDec 12, 2022
@scalzi why would it be different from previous announcements? I have been hearing about incoming nuclear fusion reactors since I was born, and yet there are none working for real.
Show threadskywiseDec 12, 2022
@lgvs @scalzi this is different in that this is the first time ever that energy output exceeds energy input for fusion reactions.
Show thread[email protected] migraDec 12, 2022

@skywise @scalzi @beowuff @drfyzziks ok, bu if I'm not mistaken, I remember that some research group already reached an "even" output some years ago, but even if theoretical output is slightly more than input, collecting all the energy and turning it into real electric power is quite a challenge.

Let's wait and see what the announcement actually is about!

Show threadDr. FyzziksDec 12, 2022
@lgvs @skywise @scalzi @beowuff Exactly :)
Show threadDr. FyzziksDec 12, 2022
@lgvs @skywise @scalzi @beowuff I think you're mistaken re: previous breakeven experiments. IIRC the closest anyone got was 71% of breakeven last year (https://www.science.org/content/article/explosive-new-result-laser-powered-fusion-effort-nears-ignition). Quite curious to see what they end up announcing tomorrow.
With explosive new result, laser-powered fusion effort nears ‘ignition’

National Ignition Facility’s latest fusion shot records a major jump in energy yield

Show threadRobert ThauDec 13, 2022
@skywise @lgvs @scalzi The energy output from the NIF fusion exceeded what came in in the light from the laser beams. But the lasers are really inefficient, so that was only 1% or so of the electirc power going *into* the laser beams. So, this result is of theoretical interest, but still nowhere near the output levels you'd need to operate a plant with significant net output.
Show threadSteven WebbDec 13, 2022
@rst @skywise @lgvs @scalzi this is why I'm not too excited yet, it's great news but the hype is missing the crucial part
Show thread[email protected] migraDec 13, 2022
@swebb @rst @skywise @scalzi
Again we are very far from concrete results... I will wait for next announcements
Show threadskywiseDec 13, 2022
@rst @lgvs @scalzi ah everything I was reading was saying that it was Net Energy input compared to output. Perhaps that was premature or just incorrect.
Show threadRobert ThauDec 13, 2022
@skywise @lgvs @scalzi If you look at the energy going into the target (the light beams), the energy going out was more than went in. If you look at the electricity powering the lasers... it was still a whole lot less. A lot of press coverage has muffed the difference, and I'm not sure even the science folks are trying to set anyone straight. Their bosses sure aren't.
Show threadYancy BurnsDec 12, 2022
@scalzi @lgvs Because this one is actually working for real. More output than input.
Show thread[email protected] migraDec 13, 2022
@beowuff @scalzi unluckily not yet, or only if you place the boundaries of your system on purpose to show the result
Show threadDr. FyzziksDec 12, 2022
@lgvs @scalzi if the rumors are to be believed, it appears as though researchers were finally able to get more energy out of the fusion reactor than the put into it. That's been the major problem with fusion up until now.
Show thread𝕞𝕒𝕥𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕨 𝕣𝕖𝕚𝕟𝕓𝕠𝕝𝕕Dec 12, 2022

@scalzi Love it! But given the number of similar, "we're almost there", claims made in the past, it is hard for me to overcome my skepticism. The Utah hubbub is (checks) more than 30-years ago. Yikes!

But *I want to believe*
https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/1990/06/10/utah-faculty-joins-cold-fusion-controversy/4f939ae1-2748-4bb3-8fa2-5052f602dd0b/

UTAH FACULTY JOINS COLD FUSION CONTROVERSY

Washington Post
Show thread𝕞𝕒𝕥𝕥𝕙𝕖𝕨 𝕣𝕖𝕚𝕟𝕓𝕠𝕝𝕕Dec 13, 2022

@scalzi Well, tickle my elbow and call me loud, this is great. Giddyap.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/13/science/nuclear-fusion-energy-breakthrough.html

Scientists Achieve Nuclear Fusion Energy Breakthrough in the US

The advancement by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory researchers will be built on to further develop fusion energy research.

The New York Times
Show threadMichael BuschDec 12, 2022

@scalzi I regret to report that that is not the case.

This is an incremental result, not a magical breakthrough.

Net energy gain is not the relevant quantity for a fusion power plant. For example: The National Ignition Facility can only do about 1 shot per day - https://annual.llnl.gov/fy-2021/national-ignition-facility-2021 . Averages down to only a few watts of power.

Nor is net energy gain met in this case if one counts all the energy required to make the fuel pellets & capsules and power the lasers.

National Ignition Facility - 2021

Supporting stockpile stewardship through a wide range of experiments and pursuit of fusion ignition; and operating as a national user facility for high-energy-density (HED) science

Show threadJohn GordonDec 13, 2022
@michael_w_busch @scalzi There’s an article in The Atlantic that kills the buzz ... https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/department-of-energy-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-nif-livermore/672439/
One (Tiny) Step Closer to Fusion Energy

This week’s big news amounts to a symbolic achievement—and symbols matter.

The Atlantic
Show threadMichael BuschDec 13, 2022

@jgordon @scalzi Not included in that piece:

Each NIF shot vaporizes a highest-quality carat-scale synthetic diamond, a little bit of gold, and a little bit of depleted uranium. Along with the rest of the capsules around the deuterium-tritium fuel pellets (and each gram of tritium costs $30,000).

These are not cheap runs.

Show threadGareth StackDec 12, 2022
@scalzi This is the first most people are hearing about a breakthrough, it hasn’t been announced yet and we’ve had decades of boosterism discounting the orders of magnitude difference between reactor power gain and plasma power gain. Most people tracking this would love for there to be a major development is self sustaining real power output.
Show threadS. Z. Attwell ☕️💻Dec 12, 2022
@scalzi I’m very excited about this. My grandfather worked on nuclear projects back in the day (Oak Ridge and possibly LLNL), as I understand, and it’s amazing to see this happening (from a sci-fi writer perspective as well).
Show threadJoeChipDec 12, 2022
@scalzi
Fusion, as originally conceived, is a relic of the centralized power distribution model. This model is inherently more fragile than distributed multi-node systems. Yes it can be integrated into a distributed system for peak use, but on its own it doesn't make economic sense except for large scale power generation. If it can be scaled DOWN to efficiently run smaller plants, then it is a real breakthrough.
Show threadMark DemenyDec 12, 2022
@scalzi I'm about the right age to have heard "10 years away from commericalization/scale" for my entire life. I remain cautiously optimistic that technology has the potential to blunt the effects of the carbon-based society we live in, but am feeling cynically 'realistic' about the timeframes and likelihood.
Show threadkaitouDec 12, 2022
@scalzi See also:
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/fusion-energy-breakthrough-by-us-scientists-boosts-clean-power-hopes/?utm_brand=arstechnica&utm_source=twitter&utm_social-type=owned&utm_medium=social
Fusion energy breakthrough by US scientists boosts clean power hopes

First-ever net energy gain from fusion raises hopes for zero-carbon alternative.

Ars Technica
Show threadTom Bellin Dec 12, 2022

@scalzi The great achievements of humanity are the result of slow, methodical progress towards a far distant goal.

Fusion is a funny one because we know exactly what we need to do, we just can't yet.

Show threadPeter BronezDec 12, 2022
@scalzi https://wapo.st/3UPPJpA
U.S. to announce fusion energy ‘breakthrough’

Scientists hit a key milestone in the quest to create abundant zero-carbon power through nuclear fusion. But they still have a long way to go.

The Washington Post
Show threadRichard HaussmannDec 12, 2022
@scalzi The catch? It only works with reactors built for mice.
Show threadLeeDec 12, 2022

@scalzi I think the real significance of this is that it might eventually make long duration interstellar travel possible.

For the Earth, I think it's going to remain cheaper and easier to use the existing fusion reactor that's conveniently located just 91.5 million miles away.

But this could be huge for the future of humanity.

Show threadJason KuznickiDec 12, 2022
@scalzi Do you know of a better explainer, something more detailed than the Washington Post's, but still accessible to someone who doesn't have a degree in the field?
Show threadAndreas H.Dec 12, 2022
@JKuznicki @scalzi
Maybe https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/fusion-energy-breakthrough-by-us-scientists-boosts-clean-power-hopes ?
Fusion energy breakthrough by US scientists boosts clean power hopes

First-ever net-energy gain from fusion raises hopes for zero-carbon alternative.

Ars Technica
Show threadLouis IngenthronDec 12, 2022
@scalzi Eh. Just sounds like another stepping stone to me. We're still a long way off from the final product.
Show threadMichael GemarDec 12, 2022
@scalzi @ehud This is a terrific technical achievement that should be celebrated. That said, I’m willing to bet a substantial sum that when we get practical grid-connected fusion power plants, they won’t be using NIF’s approach (nor will they be tokamaks). There are a large number of private firms that are pursuing more practical, scalable, commercializable approaches. (And let’s not forget that NIF’s real job is nuclear weapons research, not practical fusion.)
Show threadCK DexterHavenDec 12, 2022
@scalzi I’m waiting to see what the details are before I get too excited.
Show threadEric J. KorpelaDec 12, 2022
@scalzi I'll still be long dead before there is a functioning power plant.
Show threadDavid M Schell Dec 12, 2022
@scalzi Fusion is 15 years away, and always will WAIT WHAT?!
Show threadWela C. BrownDec 12, 2022
@scalzi That’s fantastic! Thanks for sharing it!
Show threadJorge CandeiasDec 12, 2022
@scalzi not really, though. It's progress, but it's still very, very far from the real deal. I read somewhere an account of the energy balance in the thing, and it turns out there's more energy produced than the one in the laser used to cause the reaction, but the laser itself is so inneficient that the deficit is still in the 100x range.
Show threadCPRDec 12, 2022
@scalzi this new technology “even being good for poorer countries” has a ring of deja vu to it doesn’t it? (Positive news overall though)
Show threadDon WhitesideDec 12, 2022
@scalzi @donmelton I read that with interest this morning but I’ve been fooled too many times before to get too excited by it.
Show threadDaveJDec 12, 2022
@donw @scalzi @donmelton Exactly. I’m not a scientist so it’s hard for me to evaluate these things. But I’m in my early 60s and the first time I remember hearing about the wonders of controlling fusion energy was maybe . . Jr. High School?
Show threadDon WhitesideDec 12, 2022
@Dpjones61 yeah, I’m ten years behind you and also remember plenty of past false reports. This one seems less breathless and scammy so here’s hoping! But I’ll celebrate after some more external validation.
Show threadVonGoethe DiscipleDec 12, 2022
@scalzi don’t let Pvtin know this…he’ll ask #TFG to give him the plans
Show threadBob JamiesonDec 12, 2022

@scalzi I have concerns about the "solution" to energy that fusion power would bring, if it can ever be viable. Hydrogen is an abundant element and so is seen as the ultimate energy source.

It is also an essential element in water, and the basics of the chemistry of living organisms.

In fusion power hydrogen is consumed in the production of helium.

A reduction in the availability of hydrogen will ultimately affect living systems.

We should be wary of what we change for the future.

Show threadGoing T. MaineDec 12, 2022
@scalzi just nuts
Show threadCragsand Dec 12, 2022
@scalzi Is it a leak before peer-review? No paper?
I'm very skeptical of anything revolutionary until the results are published and can be scrutinized and checked for errors.
News get this terribly wrong every now and then.
Show threadOuteastDec 12, 2022
@scalzi "At least a decade, maybe decades away from commercial use", but I've already seen techbro types crowing about how this renders major climate action moot. I predict this will be factored into national and industry net zero projections to allow continued decades of rising emissions, much like CCS. I hope I'm wrong, but given how the UK gov reckons a new coal mine won't affect commitments to net zero by 2050 bcs it's due to be shut in 2049, I'm not optimistic.
Show threadCarolannieDec 12, 2022
@scalzi issue:it took in excess of 10 Megajoules of grid power to produce 2.1 Megajoules of laser output to produce 2.5 Megajoules of fusion output. Not very efficient, an extremely lossy process
Show threadConor MahoodDec 12, 2022

@scalzi I am so flabbergasted that it is not absolute everywhere.

I read the notification twice last night to make sure I wasn't imagining it before I even dared to click through to the article.

Show threadRyan SchultzDec 12, 2022
@scalzi Here's a link to an archived version of this WashPost article if you hit a paywall: https://archive.vn/5jIS8
Show threadScott 🇮🇱🇺🇦 WILL NOT COMPLYDec 12, 2022

@scalzi Part of the reason is that mainstream science #journalism is so freaking awful. The other part is that people genuinely don't understand how energy works. (Feynman spoke of how horrified he was about the way energy was presented in grade school textbooks.)

This will be bigger news in 35 years when the tech scales. Sorry I likely won't be here to see that!

Show threadJenn Mercer, CTDec 12, 2022
@scalzi I've just heard it enough that I'm not going to get excited quite yet
Show threadMike FraserDec 13, 2022
@scalzi There are still a tremendous amount of hurdles to make fusion practical. However net positive out put is the grail and supposedly it has been achieved.
Show threadSparkle TeaDec 13, 2022

@scalzi

Yippee
I've been waiting for this since 8th grade science class in the 70s? About when I thought we'd all go metric, sigh. Oh well. This is cool.

Next stop: The ERA?

Show threadmvarioDec 13, 2022
@scalzi Pardon some of us oldsters for being skeptical, but every 8 or 10 years since at least the 70s as I can remember, there has been announcements of breakthroughs in fusion and it was just around the corner. So I'll believe it when it starts rolling out.
Show threadPam MurtaughDec 13, 2022
@scalzi Faster, please.
Show threadRJDDec 13, 2022

@scalzi
It'll be a hand waved accountants view of net energy.

A 2.1MW laser producing 2.7MW of power

Ignoring the 300-400MW of energy used to generate the 2.1MW laser

Ignoring any energy used to create the target

Its a (small) step forward.

Show threadRai Aren 🖖✨📚🇺🇦Dec 13, 2022
@scalzi It's incredible!
Show threadThe Saanich DailyDec 13, 2022

@scalzi

It also has "the potential" to delay climate auction further. Just like all the talk of SMR's (small modular reactors). We need to stop waiting on magical future technology and act now. Fusion has consistently been 20 years away...just like self driving cars are always just a year away.

Show threadDaltonRoadDec 13, 2022

@scalzi

Let's all remember to be cautious and skeptical at these sorts of stories...

It might be a breakthrough but it might have been 1/1000000 of a second result that couldn't be captured and might not be capable of being captured as energy output with current magnetic bottle technology but it shows it's possible... someday...

Some of the articles I read about this today were almost implying this could be up and running next year--- no, it probably isn't.

Show threadZorro Notorious MEB 😡Dec 13, 2022
@scalzi Send me an email when it's too cheap to meter. 👿