PwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022

Couple of particularly interesting paragraphs in today's ISW on #Ukraine / #Russia on some of Putin's latest claims

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to discuss negotiations with Ukraine as a means of separating Ukraine from its Western supporters by portraying Kyiv as unwilling to compromise or even to engage in serious talks. During a news conference at the

Institute for the Study of War
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
... cont'd
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
In other words, ISW also assessing not only that a #Ukraine-#Russia ceasefire is very unlikely in the near-term (and that Russia is uninterested in one), but also noting that Putin is specifically targeting Western audiences with the pretense that he is interested in one to cause friction, and allege that "peace would be available, if only US/Ukrainian belligerence did not prevent it"
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
That's very similar to what I wrote the other day, over here on the same topic. Namely that a sustainable peace isn't likely in the near-term, but that doesn't mean Putin won't *pretend* there is one as a specific propaganda tool to cause friction between certain Western countries and their support for Ukraine.
https://www.pwnallthethings.com/p/the-war-will-end-with-diplomacy-but
The war will end with Diplomacy. But here's why it won't be soon.

Peace in this war isn't close. And premature calls for diplomacy push it further away. Instead, the West needs to provide credible public commitments to arm Ukraine, and long-term support to get peace

PwnAllTheThings
Show threadJay Thoden van Velzen ☁️​🛡️​Dec 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings but nobody (outside of Russia) will believe even the pretend when the Russians have been conceding territory since the summer.
Show threadAlexander Ruthol
@jaythvv @Pwnallthethings
All of the far right (Marjorie Taylor Greene, AfD, Le Pen...) and all of the far left (The Squad, Mick Wallace, Melenchon...) will at least pretend to believe it; blame Ukraine for hostilities; and demand an end of aid to Ukraine.
Dec 10, 2022 at 10:42amWeb