PwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022

Couple of particularly interesting paragraphs in today's ISW on #Ukraine / #Russia on some of Putin's latest claims

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-9

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to discuss negotiations with Ukraine as a means of separating Ukraine from its Western supporters by portraying Kyiv as unwilling to compromise or even to engage in serious talks. During a news conference at the

Institute for the Study of War
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
... cont'd
Show threadPwnallthethings
In other words, ISW also assessing not only that a #Ukraine-#Russia ceasefire is very unlikely in the near-term (and that Russia is uninterested in one), but also noting that Putin is specifically targeting Western audiences with the pretense that he is interested in one to cause friction, and allege that "peace would be available, if only US/Ukrainian belligerence did not prevent it"
Dec 10, 2022 at 1:56amWeb
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
That's very similar to what I wrote the other day, over here on the same topic. Namely that a sustainable peace isn't likely in the near-term, but that doesn't mean Putin won't *pretend* there is one as a specific propaganda tool to cause friction between certain Western countries and their support for Ukraine.
https://www.pwnallthethings.com/p/the-war-will-end-with-diplomacy-but
The war will end with Diplomacy. But here's why it won't be soon.

Peace in this war isn't close. And premature calls for diplomacy push it further away. Instead, the West needs to provide credible public commitments to arm Ukraine, and long-term support to get peace

PwnAllTheThings
Show threadJay Thoden van Velzen ☁️​🛡️​Dec 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings but nobody (outside of Russia) will believe even the pretend when the Russians have been conceding territory since the summer.
Show threadPwnallthethingsDec 10, 2022
@jaythvv unfortunately, a pretty large number of people believe it. The claim is getting considerably louder, and has several senior proponents, as I detail in the post.
Show threadAlexander RutholDec 10, 2022
@jaythvv @Pwnallthethings
All of the far right (Marjorie Taylor Greene, AfD, Le Pen...) and all of the far left (The Squad, Mick Wallace, Melenchon...) will at least pretend to believe it; blame Ukraine for hostilities; and demand an end of aid to Ukraine.
Show threadRuss CopelandDec 10, 2022
@Pwnallthethings never trusting Putin on any issue is a solid start to any future negotiations.
Show threadIconifyDec 11, 2022
@rcopelander @Pwnallthethings Not trusting Putin but also understanding what his true aims are. There is a reason Alexander Dugan was targeted - a reason that appears to have completely escaped western media.
Show threadRuss CopelandDec 11, 2022
@iconify @Pwnallthethings the entire ruling class of Russia are power craven unhinged mobsters, interlocking with international criminal gangs, and should be treated as such.
Show threadIconifyDec 11, 2022
@rcopelander @Pwnallthethings No argument from me.
Show threadIconifyDec 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings It is amazing to me that there is zero discussion about Aleksandr Dugin (I misspelled his name in a different reply) and his role in all of this as well as his role influencing Putin's thinking. Zero discussion that I have seen, which is unfortunate. If you want to understand Putin's actions, read Dugin's work.