Steven T. DennisKyrsten Sinema's approval rating just before the midterm elections was 20%, per a Civiqs poll. Among Democrats, it was ***7%***! Her only potential path to reelection was to become an independent. #Sinema https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/kyrsten-sinema-s-switch-from-democrat-to-independent-complicates-2024-election?srnd=premium
Her announcement isn't going to change the Senate dynamics much if at all. She's already been essentially operating as an independent. She doesn't go to caucus lunches, spends much of her time on Senate floor or in hideaway chatting up Republicans.
But this really complicates Democrats 2024 strategy, when they face a *brutal* map; 23 D seats including WV, MT, OH vs 11 Rs seats.
Nat'l Ds will be under pressure to back Dem challenger — Gallego hinting at a run — while they need Sinema for control of committees, subpoena power, noms, etc. A pickle.
The risk for Dems is Sinema and Gallego split vote and a Republican wins — Kari Lake? Andy Biggs? — and with it Ds potentially lose their majority.
Senate Rs, faced with a somewhat similar situation, backed Lisa Murkowski against Tshibaka w/millions. But Murkowski had already shown ability to win as a write-in; her approval rating much higher than Sinema's. #Sinema
Would be less fraught for Dems if Arizona had ranked-choice voting or runoffs, but they don't.
Sinema's gambit also complicates strategy in a key presidential battleground which helped put Biden over the top.
Does Biden try to bypass this scenario with a plum appointment for Sinema? #Sinema
mick719@steventdennis Like ambassador to somewhere?
@mick719 Exactly like that.
E. Hatt-Swank@steventdennis As much as I hate to say it, it seems like she's probably ensured that the Dems won't run someone against her in 2024. I don't see them wanting to risk losing a seat in such a competitive state by fighting a 3-way race. I was *really* looking forward to watching her get primaried out of office!
Toe Knuckle@steventdennis Ranked choice voting is in the best interest for the People of all republics, but not in the best interest for the incumbents who enact it into law. With political parties our votes are typically against the party we strongly oppose, rather than for the person we want. If we vote our conscience as first option, knowing that our vote goes to our second option if our first does not win, then we would see a lot more representation in a government based on representation.
Steve Morrison@steventdennis It seems to me there are two possible paths: (A) Don't run a Dem against her. I'd give her maybe a 50/50 shot at holding the seat. (B) Run a Dem (95% chance Republicans win). If (A) and she wins, then we're where we are now. If (A) and she loses, we're in basically the same position as (B). So gaming it out, I'd say Dems have to hold their collective noses and choose (A).
@rhetormorrison That was the GOP choice in Alaska but probably won't be the Dems' choice in Arizona, where the party's hate for Sinema seems to be on another level.
@steventdennis She may have much less than a 50/50 shot, even if Dems don't run. Will she actually attract enough Republican voters to make up for the many Dems she'll lose? I'm doubtful. Losing the seat might be worth it to the Dems--especially at a time when they're likely to lose the Senate anyway--to send a message about such a stunt to future candidates.
NanBP@steventdennis I don’t think so and that’s exactly what she’s counting on to keep her on a power position w/ the DEMS. My kids just moved from Phx to AZ and signs to oust her from office are plentiful. Gallego has a real chance.
Nathanael Nerode@steventdennis Sinema has narcissistic personality disorder will do whatever she wants to do. She's proven she won't actually support Democrats, of course. Can't nominate her or it'll depress Democratic turnout; she's a guaranteed loser.
Gallego has a decent chance of winning.
Buying Sinema off with an ambassadorship or something is a perfectly reasonable move, though Sinema is so unreliable it needs to be done quite close to the election.
Frank Wheeler@steventdennis under older circumstances that would be the case, but the major issue that a lot of political journalists keep missing is the “trump factor” if you think he’s not going to encourage his base to nominate even more unelectable candidates for a general election you have another thing coming.
Science Fiction Books@steventdennis There is HOPE ONLY IF the D's start to ABOLISH the Electoral College. We have computers now that can count up to a billion. No Electors needed any more. BASE ELECTIONS on the POPULAR VOTE - remember who devised this crazy scheme - Slave Owners!
joe•iuculano 
@steventdennis I hope it goes down to ZERO before the 2024 elections