Steven T. DennisKyrsten Sinema's approval rating just before the midterm elections was 20%, per a Civiqs poll. Among Democrats, it was ***7%***! Her only potential path to reelection was to become an independent. #Sinema https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-09/kyrsten-sinema-s-switch-from-democrat-to-independent-complicates-2024-election?srnd=premium
Her announcement isn't going to change the Senate dynamics much if at all. She's already been essentially operating as an independent. She doesn't go to caucus lunches, spends much of her time on Senate floor or in hideaway chatting up Republicans.
But this really complicates Democrats 2024 strategy, when they face a *brutal* map; 23 D seats including WV, MT, OH vs 11 Rs seats.
Nat'l Ds will be under pressure to back Dem challenger — Gallego hinting at a run — while they need Sinema for control of committees, subpoena power, noms, etc. A pickle.
The risk for Dems is Sinema and Gallego split vote and a Republican wins — Kari Lake? Andy Biggs? — and with it Ds potentially lose their majority.
Senate Rs, faced with a somewhat similar situation, backed Lisa Murkowski against Tshibaka w/millions. But Murkowski had already shown ability to win as a write-in; her approval rating much higher than Sinema's. #Sinema
Would be less fraught for Dems if Arizona had ranked-choice voting or runoffs, but they don't.
Sinema's gambit also complicates strategy in a key presidential battleground which helped put Biden over the top.
Does Biden try to bypass this scenario with a plum appointment for Sinema? #Sinema
mick719@steventdennis Like ambassador to somewhere?
@mick719 Exactly like that.