My LA times oped on the new Covid wave, much of which can be prevented https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2022-12-06/covid-wave-winter-infections-immunity-bivalent-vaccine
"Anyone who doesnโ€™t take seriously the risk of COVID infection is in denial about the risk of #LongCovid and its potentially disabling effects."
Op-Ed: COVID wave is rising in U.S. because immunity is down and precautions have grown lax

The COVID-19 virus's mutations are outpacing treatments and vaccines. That's especially scary because of the decline of basic precautions such as face coverings and ventilation.

Los Angeles Times
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@erictopol Are you not the same person who recently was in jubilation because B.Q.1.1 was "mild"?
@erictopol thank you for warning us and reminding everyone that this is not over. Itโ€™s been so frustrating seeing everyone pretend that Covid is over.

@LeneBe @erictopol unfortunately it will never be over. We're stuck with COVID perpetually running through our population. I supported every measure to contain it but am now at a loss to identify what we do moving forward.

I understand the continued threat but I think it's important to acknowledge that there will never be a point where we say "COVID is over".

@JohnQuinnPublic @LeneBe @erictopol Itโ€™s true that COVID is here to stay. The hope is that eventually it will be at a level where the threat is low. We *almost* got to that point in spring of 2021, but then the mask mandates were lifted a few weeks too early. So now we have more COVID cases now than in 2020 because weโ€™ve utterly lost the will to do anything effective to curb it.

@LeneBe

I dont think anyone thinks COIVID is over really. They just think the time for masks are over and we cant live like that forever. The risks of COVID are more acceptable then a life in hazmat every time we go outside... I think this was inevitable and went on longer than one might otherwise have thought.

@erictopol

@freemo @LeneBe @erictopol But it's not inevitable. Japan, Mexico City, and Berkeley all have high mask rates. Also, a mask isn't like full hazmat.

If you become too disabled to work, will you think "at least I didn't have to mask!"?

@mindstalk

Not full hazmat, obviously, my point is it seems excessive, on the verge of hypocondria, but thats just my opinion.

A better way to think of it is "Is it worth living my whole life in a face mask, being uncomfortable, sweaty, and miserable, because of something that at this point is only slightly more lethal than the flu (early on it was much more lethal)... Id say no..

The truth is there are thousands of deadly diseases we can catch every day. Wearing partial-hazmat for a life time out of the off chance, the small chance, i may get injured is not a fair tradeoff.

That said I wont judge you if you decide to wear it.

@LeneBe @erictopol

@freemo @LeneBe @erictopol The chance of blood clots, heart damage, brain damage, etc. is uncertain but seems a lot higher than what I would call small. And you'll be rolling the dice every time you get covid, say 1-2 times a year. It's like airborne polio with re-infections. There aren't thousands of diseases like that.

"thousands we can catch" -- but we mostly don't. Whereas covid has killed 300,000 Americans this year alone.

@mindstalk

If the unknown risks turn out to be quantified and the risks are higher than we thought I am happy to potentially wear a mask **if** wearing a mask presents a potential for a long term solution and is only a temporary thing.

We wore masks for 2 years, more than 2 years... I am more than happy to take my risks rather than wear a mask for the rest of my life, even unknown risks, as there are plenty of those.

@LeneBe @erictopol

@LeneBe @mindstalk @freemo @erictopol Hazmat?! Oh good gad. Wearing a mask is no worse than putting on a hat or wearing shoes. The only two things they prevent you from doing in public are eating and putting your mouth on display. Viewing masks as temporary measures to be endured for extraordinary events instead of just basic wear for everyday life is probably why folks like you havenโ€™t gotten used to them or bothered to find ones that are comfortable.

@shawrd773

If wearing a mask is convient for you, go for it.

When I wear a mask I cant see (I wear glasses), I have a lot of trouble breathing (I used to be asthematic) and feel very claustrophobic... While it may be fine for you not everyone response the same, I find it quite miserable to the point where I'd rather not go out. They also give me a headache long term.

@LeneBe @mindstalk @erictopol

if air escapes from the mask towards your glasses, that mask is not a good fit for you, and it's not protecting you as much as a mask should

you may be vaccinated, and somewhat lucky to not have developed a bad case, but there are young children like my granddaughter for whom there aren't vaccines yet, and there are plenty of people who, even vaccinated, still develop pretty severe chronic conditions after even mild cases of covid-19.
is the inconvenience of wearing a mask is too burdensome to avoid transmitting to others the virus you're more likely to catch?
say, had you been HIV-positive some 30 years ago, would you also have abandoned condoms after a short while protecting your partner(s?), because they're too uncomfortable?

@lxo Thankfully young children are pretty resistant to covid and they are very low risk.

That said there are plenty of peple int he world with compromised immune systems who would die from a cold, the flu, or even covid and tons of other diseases... Their situation is extremely unfortunate. But I dont think its reasonable to expect an entire world to live their life wearing hazmat balanced on the risks.

wearing masks would help protect the vulnerable from several such diseases indeed. it's a bit like blocking in the fediverse. we may be thick-skinned, privileged enough to not be part of any vulnerable groups, but when we moderate, we block instances that would hurt the vulnerable, even if doing that work is a little inconvenient.
why should the conclusion be different when it comes to blocking a virus that could kill them?

@lxo by that logic if you wear full hazmat gear, including at home youd spread even less disease and save even more lives. People draw a line where it becones an unhealthy trade off (hypochondria).

For me that line is wearing half hazmat gear (just a mask), for you its wearing the full suit. We can reasonably protect the vulnerable by wearing masks in old people homes and in high risk enounters.

IIUC the implications of what you're saying, one could always do more to protect oneself and others, so everyone has to draw the line somewhere, and different people may legitimately choose different spots, even down to zero, when exposed to similar public risk profiles. I can't disagree with that.
it strikes me as odd, however, to suggest "long enough" should play a role in this assessment. absent changes to the risk profile, it seems illogical to me to decide "I've sacrificed long enough; no more!". if it made sense to wear masks (or hazmat suits) before, and the risks didn't change, it would still make just as much sense to wear them.
but the risk profile hasn't remained the same. you and others you care about have aged (not much, but that risk is going up, not down), and there's a new wave spreading incredibly fast, and without any evidence of lowering the risk of long-term chronic disability to as much as balancing out the increased risk of catching, passing on, giving rise to mutations, or getting your immune system weakened against opportunistic infections (which some new variants seem to do). so I find an "enough!" decision quite illogical at this moment. if it was reasonable to wear a mask before, now it would be a time to wear a better mask, not to drop it.
@LeneBe @mindstalk @erictopol But thatโ€™s the core of it, isnโ€™t it? To make that adaptation requires admitting to oneself that covid is both dangerous and not going away.
@freemo have you ever actually had COVID?
@freemo Iโ€™m on week 6 of coughing from being infected the 4th week of October.
@MonicaChilton That really sucks, sorry to hear you got a bad case.

@MonicaChilton 6 or 7 times so far in fact. I travel quite a bit so I am constantly being tested for covid.. 2 of the 7 times i was mildly uncomfortable but it wasnt a big deal... the other times I never even knew I had it.

Keep in mind by not wearing a mask, and by being vaccinated I am exposed more than someone who does wear a mask... So my cases are likely to be frequent and mild rather than infrequent and severe.

@erictopol Thank you for this post. Governments globally are not talking about the high risk of long Covid and people are living in denial, or treating Covid like a cold or flu ignoring the risk of major life impacting illnesses. Iโ€™m saddened by the needless loss of life and how the elderly have become expendable - the strong will survive and the weak will perish mentality.
@erictopol I have been home sick with the flu for the last 4 days. Feels exactly like covid but the test keeps coming back negative. I am not the only one in my household to suffer this. ๐Ÿค’๐Ÿคง
@erictopol As someone who has had my life drastically altered by #LongCovid, one thing I've noticed is that few people believe me, unless they've been affected personally themselves. I guess we really, REALLY need to drive home the risks!
@sb @erictopol My cat died of long COVID. She suffered horribly for two years. It was not pretty.

@erictopol

1st covid arrived about Dec 2019. Two types. Italy and China.

Delta arrived 1 year later in Dec 2020

Omnicron arrived 11 monts after Delta. Nov 2021

We're due.

@erictopol Not shocking at all. As of 11/19/22, only 40% of children 6 mo - 17 yrs have gotten the flu shot. 26.3% of all adults. 45.0% of adults 65+. Messaging on COVID vax long ago became infused with a sense of futility, and that has spread to all vaccinations.

Disclosure: My wife and I have each received 5 total shots. My child is also fully vaccinated and boosted including bivalent.

@erictopol I have long COVID getting Asthma which I haven't had since childhood, My muscles in my legs being weakened to the point cartilage easily tore in my knee. Other people I know suffer arthritis and developed heart problem after COVID. Not worth not getting insurance in the form of vaccinations. #Bluewave
@erictopol It's so sad to me but people here do not care. They did not from day one bc we had a horrible "president" and he threw out what we in healthcare call the "pandemic playbook." Misinformation took over and now there will be a nursing, doctor, and teacher shortage for decades. But those same people will not believe that either. I retired as did most friends in the field I knew.
@erictopol COVID-19 remains a grave threat to human health. After effects can be devastating. Take care & wear a mask in crowded places.
@erictopol interesting reading as I sit in my 2nd quarantine