PwnallthethingsNov 16, 2022

Wondering what's going on with the #Polish missile strikes (and let's not forget: the 100 other missile strikes in #Ukraine)?

Here's what we learned today. I'll keep track of developments here too:
https://www.pwnallthethings.com/p/live-polish-missile-strike-what-do

#Ukraine #Russia #NATO #Article4 #Poland

Polish missile strike: what do we know so far?

What do we know about the Polish missile strikes so far?

PwnAllTheThings
Show threadsecureisd
Hi @Pwnallthethings, I’m curious; Is it likely that the power grid strikes will be seen as a crippling blow to chances of Russian defeat by Ukraine’s western supporters, and might they try to chase those to cease either by direct countermeasures/weapons, or by escalating the aid they provide as a deterrent at a level that Russia cannot ignore?
Nov 16, 2022 at 4:34amWeb
Show threadsecureisdNov 16, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Also, is there some level of conflict at which Ukraine might consider strikes against the Russian population, or the west might considering arming them to do so?
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 16, 2022

@secureisd Very unlikely that it will change Western support. Bear in mind that Russia has been kinetically targeting UA power facilities since (at least) April, and in earnest since October 30 (not to mention cyber attacks against them in 2015 and 2016).

The main thing seems to be an attempt to demoralize and cause economic and widespread disruption directly across Ukraine, especially with a cold winter coming.

From Ukraine's perspective, also seems to be hardening their resolve if anything.

Show threadsecureisdNov 16, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Yes, my concern is that it seems far more extensive and effective than other efforts to date against civilians. Does UA at some point launch similar mass drone raids against RU infrastructure in retaliation? Or is that a red line with a known and unacceptable RU response? Eg. nukes
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 16, 2022

@secureisd Ukraine has already launched destructive drone and artillery strikes against infrastructure and logistics inside Russia proper.

From my perspective, it seems to me very unlikely that Russia will escalate to nuclear attacks under virtually any plausible circumstance by Ukraine.

Show threadsecureisdNov 16, 2022
Thanks! I was aware of the drone, helicopter, etc raids, but thought maybe UA had held back of larger campaigns for fear of loss of western support or retaliation like - well, what we’re seeing now anyway from RU. This helps clarify.