*Best* case scenario for the GOP is now a *very* narrow House majority while Dems keep a 50-50 Senate majority. Worst case, Dems actually gain a Senate seat and keep the House. Either way, 2022 joins 1934, 1962, 1998 and 2002 as an "asterisk" midterm. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-this-be-an-asterisk-election/
🐦🔗: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1591631444233048064
Has anyone else noticed there's an interesting pattern for "asterisk midterms"? Since 1934, there have been six mid-term elections held in years that also included new Congressional districts: 1934*, 1942, 1962, 1982, 2002, and 2022.
Four of the six are on the "asterisk" list.
In 1942, the Democrats lost seats but kept control of the House and Senate. In 1982, the GOP kept the Senate and the Democrats kept the House.
This definitely deserves more study, since it only leaves 1998 as an oddball.
(My only published academic paper is on the impact of the economy and presidential popularity in midterm elections, but that was in 1989. I'll be 73 in 2042, but I'll be paying attention!)
Dave Hogg