PwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

Fun to watch the battle of the anonymous US officials in the press.

Here are some anonymous US officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal might be available in winter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-russia-war-winter-diplomacy-rcna56190?icid=election_results

Winter could be diplomatic opportunity in Ukraine-Russia war, U.S. and Western officials say

Ukraine and Russia could have an opportunity for diplomacy as winter arrives and U.S. and Western officials anticipate a potential fighting slowdown in the war.

NBC News
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
By contrast, here are some other anonymous officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal is still very far off https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/us/politics/ukraine-russia-peace-talks.html
Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat

President Biden and European leaders say they cannot push Ukraine and Russia into negotiations, though some U.S. lawmakers are questioning aid for an open-ended war.

Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
DOD seems to be on team "winter peace deal is possible" https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1590500796118228c
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
State Dept seems to be on team "eh, I don't see it"
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
My opinion (take it or leave it, you get what you pay for) is that R would definitely go for an operational pause under guise of a ceasefire, but no peace deal would be sustainable until middle of next year at the bare minimum.
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 11, 2022

NYT on the dispute. Confirms the disagreement between DOD, who think UA have little chance of substantial additional gains over winter and should try and cement gains with an agreement, versus WH/NSC who don't see it that way, and who seem to be very skeptical that negotiations have a realistic chance of success

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html?smid=tw-share

Show threadblackfire
@Pwnallthethings in my opinion Ukraine should push in winter as Russian supplies are already to low to cover them properly. Add to that winter and there will be massive failures all over the place. Also Russia would break the ceasefire the second they thought they had enough for an offensive.
Nov 11, 2022 at 7:52pmWeb