PwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022

Fun to watch the battle of the anonymous US officials in the press.

Here are some anonymous US officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal might be available in winter: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ukraine-russia-war-winter-diplomacy-rcna56190?icid=election_results

Winter could be diplomatic opportunity in Ukraine-Russia war, U.S. and Western officials say

Ukraine and Russia could have an opportunity for diplomacy as winter arrives and U.S. and Western officials anticipate a potential fighting slowdown in the war.

NBC News
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
By contrast, here are some other anonymous officials suggesting a sustainable peace deal is still very far off https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/09/us/politics/ukraine-russia-peace-talks.html
Ukraine Peace Talks Remain Distant Even as Moscow Signals a Retreat

President Biden and European leaders say they cannot push Ukraine and Russia into negotiations, though some U.S. lawmakers are questioning aid for an open-ended war.

Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
DOD seems to be on team "winter peace deal is possible" https://twitter.com/DanLamothe/status/1590500796118228c
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
State Dept seems to be on team "eh, I don't see it"
Show threadPwnallthethingsNov 10, 2022
My opinion (take it or leave it, you get what you pay for) is that R would definitely go for an operational pause under guise of a ceasefire, but no peace deal would be sustainable until middle of next year at the bare minimum.
Show threadPwnallthethings

NYT on the dispute. Confirms the disagreement between DOD, who think UA have little chance of substantial additional gains over winter and should try and cement gains with an agreement, versus WH/NSC who don't see it that way, and who seem to be very skeptical that negotiations have a realistic chance of success

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/10/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html?smid=tw-share

Nov 11, 2022 at 7:42pmWeb
Show threadblackfireNov 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings in my opinion Ukraine should push in winter as Russian supplies are already to low to cover them properly. Add to that winter and there will be massive failures all over the place. Also Russia would break the ceasefire the second they thought they had enough for an offensive.
Show threadPeregrine993 ☑️ 🗿Nov 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings Thanks, I was surprised by Milley's comments yesterday.
Show threadJeff Hall - PCIGuru Nov 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings So ... Ukraine should negotiate to lose part of their country just so that we have "peace"? WTF? That's like the US giving up New Mexico if Mexico invaded or giving up Montana if Canada invaded - all in the name of "peace". Who in their right mind thinks that is the correct thing to do? Idiots! That's who.
Show threadJohn AllisonNov 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings I think that UA should get a vote in this.. what do they think and want to do.
Show threadDanFellNov 11, 2022
@Pwnallthethings in some ways it makes sense. From a DoD perspective RAF has lost all offensive capabilities and likely cannot sustain defensive capabilities. Peace is a logical solution. From a State Dept perspective… the diplomatic situation hasn’t changed and to make matters worse the head of state is directing the military effort.