Doc Edward Morbius ⭕​Nov 17, 2020

COVID-19: Why US situation is far worse than Europe’s, and why this may not be immediately evident

TL;DR: In assessing relative risk status, the future must be considered, not simply the present.

  • The EU’s situation is generally several weeks advanced relative to the US....
  • Instant measures of current case or death rates fail to account for built-in and likely future impacts and risks....
  • The European daily trends are slowing or reversing. US trends are accelerating. ...

https://joindiaspora.com/posts/90825a100aff0139f37b002590d8e506

#covid19 #UnitedStates #europe #CriticalThinking #FlawedArguments #HackerNews #risk #worldometers

COVID-19: Why US situation is far worse than Europe's, and why thi...

COVID-19: Why US situation is far worse than Europe's, and why this may not be immediately evident TL;DR: In assessing relative risk status, the future must be considered, not simply the present. An HN thread[0] discusses whether the US or Europe are experiencing a worse Covid situation. The question contains nuances and pitfalls, though the general answer seems to be: The EU's situation is generally several weeks advanced relative to the US. As with the Jan--Mar 2020 interval, situations in different regions can be generally considered as time-shifts of one another rather than distinct dynamics. Instant measures of current case or death rates fail to account for built-in and likely future impacts and risks. Ignoring these is a category error, though a common one. The European daily trends are slowing or reversing. US trends are accelerating. The US future looks far bleaker than the European future. This contrasts with the blinding bias of considering only immediate present ...

Show threadBálint Szilakszi
@dredmorbius this basically reminds me of the Chernobyl power plant operator saying not great not terrible
Nov 18, 2020 at 9:57amWeb
Show threadDoc Edward Morbius ⭕​Nov 18, 2020

@szbalint The situation in Chernobyl was instrumentation which literally could not register the actual scale of the catastrophe. Radiation meters read to the maximum scale, a thousand times below actual levels

The case I'm reporting here is ... different. It's one of seeing or admitting only one element of a situation, but not the inevitable implications of the whole scene. It's an aspect of what I've been calling #manifestation --- seeing only at the shallowest topical levels, not looking deeper or drawing connections.

It's also related to #denial, and probably #grief, which seem to be general responses to #WorldviewInvalidation --- having one's core belief systems invalidated. (Look up the initial Stages of Grief #KublerRoss work, it relates. I've seen similar descriptions of #authoritarian responses.) Mind, "not great, not terrible" expresses this, though coming through a diffrent door. The end result is the same: denying reality.

See related, the North Dakota nurse reporting on patients whose dying words are denial that the thing killing them is in fact COVID-19. Or the Utah health commissioner, sending overflow patients to Washington state, insisting that they have some other condition.

Denial is a formidable force.