COVID-19: Why US situation is far worse than Europe's, and why thi...

COVID-19: Why US situation is far worse than Europe's, and why this may not be immediately evident TL;DR: In assessing relative risk status, the future must be considered, not simply the present. An HN thread[0] discusses whether the US or Europe are experiencing a worse Covid situation. The question contains nuances and pitfalls, though the general answer seems to be: The EU's situation is generally several weeks advanced relative to the US. As with the Jan--Mar 2020 interval, situations in different regions can be generally considered as time-shifts of one another rather than distinct dynamics. Instant measures of current case or death rates fail to account for built-in and likely future impacts and risks. Ignoring these is a category error, though a common one. The European daily trends are slowing or reversing. US trends are accelerating. The US future looks far bleaker than the European future. This contrasts with the blinding bias of considering only immediate present ...