Yahoo Finance | US banks set to deliver solid first quarter results amid macroeconomic uncertainty

Major US banks are poised to deliver solid first quarter results, though broader economic concerns may temper investor enthusiasm as earnings season begins, according to Bank of America analysts. The analysts expect broadly in-line to slightly better results across eight large institutions: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust. Performance is being driven by elevated trading activity and a rebound in investment banking, alongside a more favorable interest rate backdrop and continued growth in commercial lending.

Deposit costs have remained relatively contained, helping support net interest income, while credit quality has so far held up despite ongoing scrutiny of private credit markets. However, the bank’s analysts highlighted that strong quarterly results may not translate into improved sentiment. “Results alone may not be enough to turn around worsening investor sentiment, informed by private credit headlines, software disruption, and rising stagflation risks,” they wrote. Bank of America sees the current environment as one where earnings resilience is intact, but confidence is fragile.

While there is still a credible path to avoiding a recession, uncertainty around inflation and growth is likely to keep management teams cautious. As a result, banks are not expected to significantly revise full-year guidance at this stage. Valuations across the sector are seen as reasonable relative to earnings growth expectations, with the analysts suggesting that a more pronounced deterioration in the economic outlook, or a market shock, would be needed to drive meaningful underperformance in bank stocks. Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) is highlighted as offering the most attractive risk-reward profile, while Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) is modestly preferred over Goldman Sachs. Among custody banks, Bank of New York Mellon Corp (NYSE:BK) is the top pick, and State Street Corp (NYSE:STT) has been upgraded to a more neutral stance.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/us-banks-set-deliver-solid-171000002.html

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