I think the calculus of #RegisteredReports might have flipped in a #SurveillancePublishing APC-driven #OpenAccess world.
Subscription models meant that a journal could command a high price by being in high demand in a self-reinforcing cycle where since most libraries subscribed to them then they would have high readership, etc. Multiply that by the power of bundling or whatever. Libraries being a conduit could tell who read what and tailor subscriptions accordingly. actual loss of readership could impact subscription cost during negotiations, so null results are less attractive because they command fewer readers and citations and whatnot. publication bias ensues. the classic story.
in an APC world, where the profit is derived from authors willing to directly pay more for the attendant view count and citation, the registered report is instead more like a commitment to pay at some future time to publish. if the prices keep going up, the journal effectively invests in your need to publish as a security.
this is doubly perverse in a surveillance publishing system, where the publishers operate paper recommendation and rating systems linked to funding and employment decisions. in that case, they can just manufacture the view count and citation - and even literal "scientific value score" - as a function of APC price, so null results aren't even a problem since the exclusivity-prestige link is partially dissolved.
I wonder if causes for publication bias could have changed substantially enough that registered reports could backfire as a means of combating publication bias. Since the primary filter is the perceived importance of a piece of work - assuming the authors could pass some competency and design check normal to the field - which is most likely to be at least partially evaluated by the same system of self-fulfilling metrics used in the recommendation/scoring systems for funders and employers, they might directly reinforce hype cycles. couple that again with the prestige gradient model of APC pricing where one publisher owns many Journals at different prestige levels and can bounce you down the ladder to one with a lower but still high APC.
Journals then would then be effectively sorting papers by APC according to the propensity for views/citations, regardless of outcome. It's sort of a combination of payola and security. plz lmk where I'm missing something here bc not just trying to shit on the parade.