@jon Precisely. The distribution curve is #leptokurtic - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leptokurtic.asp This is what blew up #LTCM when they used a mean-reversion strategy assuming standard distribution. Fun fact, volatility has anti-persistent qualities, where net positive changes or negative ones are more likely to be met with opposite moves, unlike most financial data. #trading #statistics

@nic That advice sits on the bookshelf at the former #LTCM offices. Kings of the "mean reversion" theory that nearly blew up the financial system (again). Conventional wisdom doesn't give an edge, but you knew that already.

@BanTheBBC 1) Price data has time-persistent qualities #HurstExponent versus randomized sets 2) Most indicators are crap, which doesn't help perception of #TA at all 3) Price distributions are #leptokurtic with higher means and "lumpy" tails which makes any model using standard gaussian distribution fail #LTCM and "mean reversion" strategies.
So, I respectfully disagree.