undefined | Earnings season could finally give the stock market some good news. Here's what's ahead

Earnings season could finally give the stock market a lift now that a tentative cease‑fire in the Iran‑U.S. conflict appears to be holding. After President Trump halted attacks for two weeks, the Dow Jones surged more than 1,300 points – its biggest single‑day gain since April 2025 – and investors have been hopeful that a quick resolution will temper the spike in energy prices. With fiscal policy still supportive of consumer spending and fed‑funds futures pricing in at least one interest‑rate cut by year‑end, the first‑quarter earnings reports, beginning with the nation’s biggest banks, may provide the catalyst to steer the market back toward higher levels.

Analysts expect solid earnings growth across the board. FactSet projects the S&P 500 companies will post a blended earnings‑growth rate of 12.5 % for the quarter – the sixth consecutive quarter of double‑digit growth – and nine of the eleven sectors are slated for year‑over‑year earnings gains. The bulk of the upside is forecast to come from information‑technology stocks, which are expected to jump 44 %, underscoring the sector’s market‑driving role. Nonetheless, outside of tech and materials, expectations are more modest, and a warning from Delta Air Lines about curbing capacity because of rising jet‑fuel costs reminds investors that the war‑related volatility has not fully dissipated.

Market participants remain cautious but optimistic. “If we can see tensions die down in the Middle East, there’s an opportunity for markets to rebound,” said Anthony Saglimbene of Ameriprise Financial, while Gabelli Growth Innovators ETF manager John Belton noted that the earnings season offers the first real chance to test whether the energy and geopolitical shocks have already been priced into company fundamentals. Upcoming reports from giants such as Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Netflix, BlackRock and Johnson & Johnson will be closely watched for clues on whether the market can recover the losses incurred since the war began in February.

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