sweet_gyokuro16h ago

The carry spread is at the 10th percentile. Bessent's alarm is statistical. Katayama's is political. Between them sits exactly one carry unwind.

Includes reverse-engineered 6-sigma methodology from actual JGB/UST data.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/lifeguard-who-cannot-swim-back/

#CarryTrade #JPY #UST #JGB #Bessent #BOJ #MOF

The Lifeguard Who Cannot Swim Back

Bessent's toolkit is thinning. Katayama's threshold is political. The carry spread sits at the 10th percentile. Between their two alarm bells, the yen carry trade is running out of room.

Gyokuro Time
sweet_gyokuro2d ago
Within 24 hours, the BOJ and the Fed both held. Their dissents pointed in opposite directions. Takata voted to hike — using the oil shock as an argument for faster tightening. Miran voted to cut — the president's own appointee, with core PCE at 3.0%. Same shock. Opposite conclusions. For Japanese financials, both scenarios lead to the same place.
https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/two-holds-two-dissents/
#boj #fed #interestrates #carrytrade #japan
Two Holds, Two Dissents, One Oil Shock

The BOJ and the Fed held rates within twenty-four hours of each other. Their dissents pointed in opposite directions. For investors in Japanese financials, the asymmetry is the trade.

Gyokuro Time
acemaxxMar 8
#FX #CarryTrade
Over the past year, hot money has poured into the short-term debt of “frontier” nations, especially #Egypt -- There, 1y paper offers a 25% yield, which is an eye-popping return even after subtracting expected inflation of 12%, chart @reuters.com
https://www.breakingviews.com/columns/breaking-view/iran-war-shakes-egyptian-carry-trade-2026-03-06/
Michael A. Gayed, CFAFeb 21
Japan's Negative Rates: Global Borrowing Strategy. Discover Japan's long-standing negative interest rates and how global investors leverage this for cheap capital. #JapanEconomy #NegativeInterestRates #BankOfJapan #CheapCapital #CarryTrade #GlobalInvesting
Yonhap Infomax NewsFeb 11
South Korea’s bond market is seeing increased short-term buying ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, as investors seek to lock in carry returns amid favorable funding conditions and rising yields.
#YonhapInfomax #BondMarket #CarryTrade #ShortTermYields #GovernmentBonds #LunarNewYearHoliday #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=104949
Bond Market Strategies Ahead of Lunar New Year Holiday—How Strong Will Carry Demand Be

South Korea’s bond market is seeing increased short-term buying ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday, as investors seek to lock in carry returns amid favorable funding conditions and rising yields.

Yonhap Infomax
acemaxxFeb 3
#FX
#yen #CarryTrade is unwinding, chart Torsten Sløk @apolloglobal
Show threadtradingJan 28
#CarryTrade #SwingTrading #FixedIncomeTrading #TradeExecution #RiskManagement #PortfolioHedging #FinancialMarkets #BondTraders #TradeLikeAPro #AlphaGeneration (5/5)
acemaxxJan 26
#FX Carry Trade
The combination of higher yields and a stronger currency threatens the #carrytrade — This is how #Bloomberg ’s index for borrowing in #yen and parking in #dollars has performed since the start of 2024, chart @johnauthers.bsky.social
Yonhap Infomax NewsJan 22
South Korea’s credit bond rally may end earlier than usual amid heightened government bond volatility post-Bank of Korea meeting, with analysts favoring carry trades as capital gains prospects narrow.
#YonhapInfomax #CreditBonds #BankOfKorea #CarryTrade #GovernmentBondVolatility #KoreaInvestmentSecurities #Economics #FinancialMarkets #Banking #Securities #Bonds #StockMarket
https://en.infomaxai.com/news/articleView.html?idxno=101475
Concerns Mount Over Early End to Credit Market’s New Year Rally—Favorable Environment for Carry Trades

South Korea’s credit bond rally may end earlier than usual amid heightened government bond volatility post-Bank of Korea meeting, with analysts favoring carry trades as capital gains prospects narrow.

Yonhap Infomax
Show threadtradingJan 18
Concluding Thought:
This carry-based approach turns the long wait of position trading into a calculated, income-generating process, making your backtest a living reality. #CarryTrade #FuturesTrading #TrendFollowing #TradingPsychology #Journaling #TradingCommunity #TradersLife #TradingSuccess #ConsistentProfits (16/16)