Somewhere between $250 billion and $4 trillion, a ghost lives. Mimura just invoked "resolute measures" for the first time. USD/JPY breached 160. March 31 is tomorrow.

The carry trade may be dead. The question is whether portfolios are built for 3% or for 10%.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/carry-trade-ghost/

#JPY #CarryTrade #MOF #BOJ #intervention #JGB #macro

Currency intervention is a political act with a financial alibi. The verbal ladder is almost spent. Three gates stand between Katayama and the trigger — and the calendar says they all open in late April.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/katayama-intervention-timing

#JPY #intervention #MOF #BOJ #Katayama #Bessent #CarryTrade #macro

The carry spread is at the 10th percentile. Bessent's alarm is statistical. Katayama's is political. Between them sits exactly one carry unwind.

Includes reverse-engineered 6-sigma methodology from actual JGB/UST data.

https://gyokuro.dev/en/posts/lifeguard-who-cannot-swim-back/

#CarryTrade #JPY #UST #JGB #Bessent #BOJ #MOF