Tokyo stocks fell 12% in one morning in 2024 - the worst day since Black Monday 1987.
The cause: the yen carry trade. Borrow yen in Japan near zero, swap to dollars, earn the gap. A trillion dollars staked by 2007.
Japan raised rates in 2024. The yen strengthened, leveraged positions unwound. Nikkei -12.4% on 5 Aug.
On 16 Jun 2026, Japan raised rates to 1% - a 31-year high. Yen shorts at a 9-year peak. The trade is bigger than before the 2024 break.





