| Bio | 5x Dow & Founders Award Winner. Risk-On/Off $RORO ETF, Junk-On/Off $JOJO ETF, & $ATACX Mutual Fund Portfolio Manager. Publisher Of The Lead-Lag Report. |
| The Lead-Lag Report | leadlagreport.substack.com |
Q1 lesson:
Cuts → Hikes.
Stable oil → $112.
Safe → Risky.
Narratives flip faster than positioning.
If you're still running January's thesis in Q2, you're not wrong in theory. You're just wrong in the market that actually exists.
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$39T national debt.
10Y yield: 4.44%.
Annual interest: ~$1.1T.
That exceeds the entire defense budget.
The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future.
There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale.
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$39T national debt.
10Y yield: 4.44%.
Annual interest: ~$1.1T.
That exceeds the entire defense budget.
The US is paying more to service its past than to defend its future.
There is no clean exit from a fiscal spiral at this scale.
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Q1 earnings season starts in 2 weeks.
Consensus: +11.3% growth.
But oil at $101 changes every corporate margin.
Nobody cares about the number. Everyone should care about guidance.
What do CEOs say about the next 90 days?
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Q1 earnings season starts in 2 weeks.
Consensus: +11.3% growth.
But oil at $101 changes every corporate margin.
Nobody cares about the number. Everyone should care about guidance.
What do CEOs say about the next 90 days?
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January: everyone was long rate cuts.
Now: hike odds >50%.
That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished.
$SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind.
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January: everyone was long rate cuts.
Now: hike odds >50%.
That's not a rotation. That's the largest positioning reversal in years — and the unwind isn't finished.
$SPY -3.4%. $QQQ -4.2%. The price tells you where we are in that unwind.
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$GLD beats stocks.
Beats bonds.
Beats crypto.
Q1: Gold +12%.
When the asset with no yield, no earnings, and no productivity beats everything — it's not about inflation.
It's about distrust of the entire system.
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$GLD beats stocks.
Beats bonds.
Beats crypto.
Q1: Gold +12%.
When the asset with no yield, no earnings, and no productivity beats everything — it's not about inflation.
It's about distrust of the entire system.
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$CL WTI pre-market: $101.84.
$BNO Brent: $108.
Iran demanding sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
That's not a negotiating position. It's a non-starter — and everyone knows it.
The war premium is permanent until proven otherwise.
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