TheBadPlaceUS Top News and Analysis | Alphabet has fallen sharply since mid-February. Trading a potential comeback with options
Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) has pulled back more than 14% from its February highs. As a vertically integrated AI powerhouse and now about halfway between the recent highs and the 200-day moving average, with elevated "implied volatility" (the term options traders use to describe option prices), one of my favorite stocks may be setting up for one of my favorite strategies. Following the introduction of Gemini 3.1 and "Personal Intelligence," Alphabet is demonstrating that it can defend its search moat while scaling a high-margin cloud business. My thinking is that this most recent weakness should be taken advantage of as an opportunity to get into GOOGL at a better price.
To capitalize on a move back towards the all-time highs of $343 with slightly lower risk than buying 100 shares, a Call Spread Risk Reversal could play for a rebound while taking advantage of potential support at the 200-day moving average. In the worst case, a much steeper decline, one would be compelled to purchase the stock at $265 (the 200 DMA), a more than 20% discount to the recent highs. Trade: Buy the June 19, 2026, $300 Call / Sell the June 19, 2026, $330 Call and $265 Calls. The Logic: By selling the $330 call and $265 puts, you're financing the $300 call, so no "decay" (aka "theta"). Outcome: You profit as long as GOOGL climbs above $300, with maximum profit realized if the stock hits $330 by June expiration. The downside risk is that you may be compelled to purchase the stock at $265 if it falls below that level by June expiration.
The bullish narrative is centered on operating leverage. Google Cloud's margins have exploded to 30.1%, up from 17.5% just a year ago. With a $240 billion backlog, Cloud is no longer a "side project" — it is a massive profit engine. Furthermore, the integration of Gemini 3.1 Flash into Search has debunked the "AI will kill Google" myth. Instead of losing users, Google has increased utility through "Personal Intelligence," which connects your Gmail and Photos to Search. This creates a "sticky" ecosystem that competitors like OpenAI struggle to replicate without the same depth of user data. Google's Gemini has matched or exceeded OpenAI's ChatGPT in several recent tests. Anecdotally, it seems better at understanding and rendering graphic images as well. In the base case, GOOGL remains a steady compounder. Advertising revenue continues to grow at 7%-9%, supported by YouTube's dominance in Connected TV and Shorts monetization. While regulatory scrutiny from the DOJ remains a headline risk, the fundamental demand for Google's "intent-based" advertising is unparalleled. Analysts expect the stock to trade in a range of $320 to $350 by year-end, driven by consistent "beats and raises" as AI efficiencies lower cost per query. The primary risk is capex intensity. Building and maintaining the infrastructure for Gemini 3.1 is expensive. If the ROI from AI features doesn't translate into higher ad conversion rates, margins could compress. Additionally, a "Bear" would point to a decline in CTR (Click-Through Rate) for informational searches; if users get their answers entirely from AI Overviews without clicking ads, Google's bread-and-butter revenue could stagnate. If the economy faces a "hard landing" and ad spend dries up, a retreat to the $250 support level is possible. GOOGL is trading at just 21x FY2027 estimated EPS, which is expected to grow to over $14/share (~15% YoY), making it attractively priced relative to the overall market and its "Magnificent" peers. For those willing to bet on the "Personal Intelligence" era, the risk-reward remains firmly skewed to the upside. DISCLOSURES: None. All opinions expressed by the CNBC Pro contributors are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, or its parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet or another medium. THE ABOVE CONTENT IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY. THIS CONTENT IS
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