Notes_AmexicaXVLIs the world facing a looming food crisis?
Yes, and the situation is quite serious — and in some parts of the world, a crisis is not looming but already here. Here’s a comprehensive picture:
## The Current State
An estimated 318 million people currently face acute hunger — double pre-pandemic levels — with 41 million at emergency levels or worse. Two famines have been confirmed simultaneously in Gaza and parts of Sudan, marking the first time this century that famine has struck two countries at once.
Beyond outright hunger, 2.3 billion people are experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity, and over 2.6 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet.
The WFP 2026 Global Outlook reports a 20% increase in the number of people facing acute food insecurity since 2020.
## The Major Drivers
**Conflict** is the single biggest factor. In 2024, conflict was the leading driver of acute food insecurity, affecting nearly 140 million people, followed by climate extremes affecting 96 million, and economic shocks affecting nearly 60 million.
The FAO and WFP have identified six countries at the highest risk of famine or catastrophic hunger: Sudan, Palestine, South Sudan, Mali, Haiti, and Yemen. Countries of very high concern also include the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Myanmar, Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, and Afghanistan.
**Climate change** is now a structural problem, not an occasional one. The Global Hunger Index highlights that climate change is now a constant rather than episodic threat.
**Fertilizer supply** is an emerging and acute crisis in 2026. Governments are rushing to secure supplies of critical crop nutrients ahead of spring planting, as the Middle East war chokes off the flow of commodities. The most significant catalyst has been the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — with roughly one-third of global seaborne urea and 20% of ammonia trade passing through this chokepoint, the halt in shipping from major producers like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman has effectively stranded millions of tons of production.
China has also effectively built a wall of export restrictions on urea and phosphates to ensure domestic food security, with the move removing nearly 40% of global phosphate trade from the international market — signaling a shift where nations no longer view fertilizers as global commodities but as strategic national assets.
## A Paradox at the Heart of It
Even though today’s global food production is enough to feed everyone on the planet, hunger continues to increase in some parts of the world. This is a crucial point — the food crisis is fundamentally one of **distribution, politics, and economics**, not purely of production capacity.
## Some Cautious Good News
An estimated 673 million people experienced hunger in 2024, which represents a decrease of 15 million from 2023 and 22 million from 2022, with notable improvements in southern Asia and Latin America. However, progress has been deeply uneven, and hunger is still rising across Africa and Western Asia.
## The Holmgren Connection
This situation connects directly to what Holmgren warns about — industrial agriculture’s deep dependence on fossil fuels (fertilizers are made from natural gas), global supply chains, and geopolitical stability. The fertilizer crisis unfolding right now is almost a textbook illustration of his energy descent thesis: when geopolitical stress disrupts energy flows, food systems become immediately vulnerable in ways that locally-rooted, lower-input agriculture would not be.
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