So if #Iran shut down #StraitOfHormuz (20% of fossil production) and #Yemen shut down anything going through #SuezCanal (12% of all global shipping) or #Sumed #Pipeline (together Suez and Sumed account for 9% of crude and 8% of LPG), that's probably in excess of a 20% increase in the cost of fossil energy coming down the track. More significant than the destruction of #nordstream2pipeline in terms of inflationary pressure and alternative routing is substantially more difficult and costly, so the impact is likely to be sustained. Neocons will probably seize the excuse to argue for joining Israel in a regime change excursion as public discontent with bills gets up. The ethnonationalists might remain insular to start with, arguing for fortifying the borders of Europe against the flood of refugees as Israel continues to lash out around it, but sooner or later they will join the drumbeat of war as well.