I didn't realize Chicago also attempted a real estate transfer tax to fund affordable housing (discussed at 1:06:02, it was a referendum that was defeated by the real estate industry in March 2024).

LA passed such a thing, and the real estate industry is now attempting to gut it with a state bill #SB423 (another, #AB698, would make it harder to pass such taxes in future).

New attack on affordable housing funding just dropped! #SB423 was gut-and-amended overnight to ban LA from taxing real estate sales if the building is less than 15 years old or a single-family home. This would take a huge bite out of LA's Measure ULA which has raised $830m for affordable housing.

leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavC...
Bill Text - SB-423 Housing: real property transfer taxes: affordability covenants.

SB 423 Housing: real property transfer taxes: affordability covenants.

There are also bills to streamline approval processes for mixed income homes. The most important of these is #SB423, a Wiener bill backed by Carpenters. It extends streamlining used by affordable housing, also expands it for-profit developers who include some affordable units 3/

I’d like to make my prediction of the unintended consequences of #SB423:

Cities infected by SB423 will all follow a similar pattern:

  • There will be a hot zone in the city about 10 blocks square or so where mandatory approval will be the most lucrative and every developer will focus on that zone. I don’t know where this will be in any given city, but I bet #ScottWiener ‘s staff does.
  • A blockbusting like effect will happen in the hot zone. As the first set of redevelopment happens existing land owners will see the writing on the wall and sell out to the developers. Up to 90% of the area will become multistory rental housing in 24 months.
  • Initially this housing supply will bring lots of housing to the area, and the developers, having done their math correctly, will make significant profits in the first 5 years. However the area will over-saturate and any property not developed in the landrush will become devalued.
  • City services in the area will be overwhelmed. The city government will be forced to spend a substantial amount to avoid catastrophic collapse of basic service in the area. There will be one ore two high profile failures, and a lot of smaller struggles.
  • 5 - 7 years later, the developers will have cashed out and the regional and national property management firms will take over the buildings. A new hot spot will develop some ways away which will put downward pressure on rent. The buildings - built to code but not built to last - will start to see the first set of capital repairs set in just as the rental market softens.
  • 10-15 years after the boom, the slumlords start buying out the more reputable property management companies in the 20% of buildings with the worst maintenance issues. While most places are still okay, the existence of notoriously shaudy buildings in the area effects the whole community and buildings start to get abandoned or neglected. The area experiences a classic urban blight as all the buildings in the area age out at the same time.
  • In 25 years cities will be pock marked with SB423 neighborhoods and historians will begin comparing them to the Towers in the Park of the 1960s and 1970s.

#IHopeIAMWrong

#housing #affordableHousing #housingCrisis, #CALeg

Blockbusting - Wikipedia

Some housing bills I'd like to see Gavin Newsom
sign include:
#SB4 affordable housing on religious/college land
#AB309 & #SB555 mixed income housing
#SB423 faster approvals for housing
#SB567 enforcing tenant protections
#AB1033 allow cities to allow ADUs to be sold separately

In addition to #SB567 other key bills in this year's fair housing/tenant protection package include:
#AB12 cap on deposits
#AB1218 replacement for demo'd units
#AB1418 bans racist crime-free housing laws
#AB1620 allows disabled tenant to switch units, keep rent control

On the production side, in addition to SB4, SB423, and AB1033, some other important bills include
#AB835 bldg code study for point-access blocks
#AB976 continues to allow ADUs on rental property
#AB1287 incentives for moderate income housing
#AB1633 stops CEQA delays

With that said, of all the remaining 60+ bills that the Legislature has passed, all of them are going to make positive contributions to solving California's housing crisis. Let's get them all signed. 🏡🏡

Many housing bills got California Democratic Party's support as major priorities at this weekend's Visalia conference.
- Scott Wiener's #SB423 to streamline new home approvals

- Alex Lee's social housing bill #AB309

- Maria Elena Durazo tenant protections bill #SB567

- Matt Haney's #AB12 to limit security deposits to 1 month rent

- Dawn Addis's #AB318 mobile home tenant protections

- Josh Lowenthal's #AB1218 requiring replacement units for housing demolished for nonresidential bldgs

More in thread
1/

Anyhow, I agree with the CA Conf. of Carpenters that it is better to grow the pool of workers being paid a union-level wage than to grant a monopoly to one union that doesn't even have the numbers needed to build the amount of housing CA needed yesterday.

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RT @emily_hoeven
EDITORIAL: Democratic lawmakers should strengthen their political backbones & pass @Scott_Wiener’s #SB423 to build more homes & uplift exploited workers. The la…
https://twitter.com/emily_hoeven/status/1629897941967306753

Emily Hoeven on Twitter

“EDITORIAL: Democratic lawmakers should strengthen their political backbones & pass @Scott_Wiener’s #SB423 to build more homes & uplift exploited workers. The labor standards are a huge improvement over the status quo, despite what the Building Trades says. https://t.co/upPWuLfhXv”

Twitter