This is no longer a series of isolated interdictions. It is a deliberate, sustained maritime enforcement campaign targeting Venezuela’s oil export capacity and the Russian shadow fleet networks enabling it.
The move failed and instead, it created political exposure and required a visible retaliatory response.
In Putin’s system, vulnerability cannot be left unmanaged. Tying Oreshnik to an alleged attempt on his life personalizes the strike, justifies escalation, and converts prestige repair into defensive retaliation. Putin always escalates even when he fabricated the cause.
I watched #BBC's coverage of the Marinera seizure last night and noticed repeated references to the tanker Marinera delivering oil from Iran to Venezuela. This appears to be a reporting error, as it would make little economic sense for Iran to transport its own sanctioned oil halfway across the globe to another oil-producing country under sanctions that is attempting to export its own sanctioned oil.
The attached video shows the Marinera clearly operating under ballast.
We can only hope this comes early enough to matter and that it persists.
"We step on the third rail so you don't have to." - OSINT Intuit™
7/7
The Tu-214SR can accommodate up to 64 passengers, but it is designed for secure communications and special mission tasking. Using it in shuttle mode on a civilian route indicates active, state-controlled movement of high-value human assets.
#OSINT #RealOSINT
4/4
The political and strategic implications have not yet been fully defined, which means the situation is still taking shape. Yesterday, the value of the cargo could be inferred from Russian behavior. Today, that value will be defined by how the United States and NATO choose to respond.
This is no longer a question of what is physically on the ship but a question of what level of risk both sides are willing to accept over it.
#RealOSINT #OSINT
16/17
That is why most of my work, even when it references current events, is framed with “this is what I see” or “this is what I believe,” because interpretation is where the value is added even if reposting headlines is where the clicks are.
If you want to follow a distribution node, this is not the place to be. If you want to follow an analytical node, welcome home.
“I step on the third rail so you do not have to.” – OSINT Intuit™
#RealOSINT
5/6
OSINT Intuit™
DataBreachDan