Fitch Ratings forecasts that persistent global oil oversupply will continue to cap geopolitical risk premiums, with the market able to absorb potential supply disruptions from Iran. The agency expects global oil supply to outpace demand through 2026, supported by OPEC+’s significant spare capacity.
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Fitch Says Oil Oversupply Limits Geopolitical Premium—Market Can Absorb Iran-Driven Disruptions

Fitch Ratings forecasts that persistent global oil oversupply will continue to cap geopolitical risk premiums, with the market able to absorb potential supply disruptions from Iran. The agency expects global oil supply to outpace demand through 2026, supported by OPEC+’s significant spare capacity.

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