Interest rate swaps surge sharply following Iran-U.S. conflict as foreign hedge funds bet on oil-driven rate hikes, widening the spread with spot bond yields to 43.30bp from 28.20bp since late February, though major institutions assess domestic rate hike probability at only 10% even under extended war scenarios.
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Hedge Funds Bet on Oil-Driven Rate Hikes as Bond-Swap Spread Widens

Interest rate swaps surge sharply following Iran-U.S. conflict as foreign hedge funds bet on oil-driven rate hikes, widening the spread with spot bond yields to 43.30bp from 28.20bp since late February, though major institutions assess domestic rate hike probability at only 10% even under extended war scenarios.

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