FYI

I used to consult #Hurdat2 as database for Atlantic hurricanes.
Importing / updating data into spreadsheets is rather time consuming. And I wasn't able to satisfyingly answer whatever questions I was trying to pursue.

Now switched to #ibtracs , international best storm tracks https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/international-best-track-archive

Advantages:
*It's near real-time instead of 2 years old.
*Comes with netCDF where each storm track is mapped and can be exported as image using NASA's Panoply app https://www.giss.nasa.gov/tools/panoply/ .
*Visual inspection and sorting of track pictures is a quick and not-dirty way to answer my most pressing question: are northward-moving hurricanes increasing? Answer: no.
*Appears to have all the Hurdat2- information, but data format provided in separate CSV files is simpler.
*Covers all ocean basins in same data formats, also as netCDF.

MetOffice UK's Deep Dive looks at whether Erin enters the jetstream on Monday. But in either case, Erin will strengthen and straighten the jet. Why this happens is explained well in the ~last third of the 32min video.

https://youtu.be/4SLJ2dltqpQ

[Jet-straightening ends the Greenland High and the melt season, I assume.💃]

Erin is interesting, partly bc it won't bring big suffering so curiosity is not tainted with sadness or fear.

The fact that it is diverted North is particularly interesting to me.
I keep asking meteorologists about the reason for this changed travel itinerary 😁
but I am ignored!!!!111!! 😁

So I'm scanning past storm tracks https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/Data_Storm.html
to see which ones also got diverted North, and what the reason might have been.
At least in some cases it'll be caused by or strengthened by #ClimateChange , which, together with what happens to the jetstream when an ex-Hurricane comes near it, also means more stormy summers and autumns in Europe.

#hurricane #Erin #storm #meteorology #Hurdat2

@WhippoorwillSong @breadandcircuses

There was a paper 2-3 months ago, or that was when I read it anyway, which analysed Era5 data on Atlantic depressions and found that indeed, summer tropical #storm are moving North more, and also North-East, now threatening Europe with strong winds and heavy rains as #climate weirding progresses.
Sadly, NOAA's #Hurdat2 , the #hurricane database, doesn't support such trend analyses as the data really is only for threats to US and Caribbean.

Forecasting the number of #Atlantic #hurricanes and named #storms appears to be a doomed profession in global weirding: the difference between actual and forecasted numbers is strongly increasing.

Only the trend in false forecasted numbers of major hurricanes hasn't changed, it was and is still a game of dice. 😁

Below chart shows the difference between actual storm numbers as per Hurdat2 minus the forecasted CSU number in April of each year.

I applied the hurricane definition by Saffir and Simpson: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

actual storm data is from #Hurdat2 https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/hurdat2.html

April "CSU forecast" numbers are from this tweet https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1787212013963251936