看到Dot-Com-bubble Wiki里的一段：

在这种氛围下，许多投资者愿意忽视市盈率等传统指标，而将信心建立在技术进步之上，最终导致了股市泡沫 。995 年至 2000 年间，纳斯达克综合指数上涨了 400%。其市盈率一度高达 200 倍，远超 1991 年日本资产价格泡沫时期日经 225 指数 80 倍的峰值市盈率。1999 年， 高通股价飙升 2619%，另有 12 只大型股股价涨幅均超过 1000%，还有 7 只大型股股价涨幅均超过 900%。尽管纳斯达克综合指数上涨 85.6%， 标普 500 指数上涨 19.5%

想到了一句话“天欲其亡，必先令其狂”。

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

#互联网泡沫 #dotcombubble

Something I do find interesting with the popular fediverse wish of ultimate AI bubble dotcom bubble style implosion (slight exageration to summarize):

The most common portfolios people are likely holding are unoptimized, usually single FTSE100/S&P500/MSCI World etc ETF portfolios (there might be some separate EM exposure, broad bond ETFs, some single-topic-funds etc., but in my experience people with those are already outliers).
In the case of the "glorious AI implosion" those would see more than signifcant losses for likely a very substantial amount of time, likely often unbuffered by dividend payments as these portfolios effectively have more than substantial exposure to the central actors of the AI bubble.

Given that a correction of that sector is indeed not unlikely to happen - what are the hedges and mitigations people have prepared for themselves for this risk scenario?
A faint hope for diversification and dollar-cost-averaging to fix it until retiring age?

#dotcombubble #dotcombubblecomparison #dotcombubblealloveragain #investing #etfs #aibubble #aibubbleburst #strategicpopcornreserves #hedging #mitigationstrategies #dollarcostAveraging #mag7 #faang

"Now, I know what you’re thinking. Ed, isn’t that exactly what’s happening here? We’ve got overvalued startups, we’ve got multiple unprofitable, unsustainable AI companies promising to IPO, we’ve got overvalued tech stocks, and we’ve got one of the largest infrastructural buildouts of all time. Tech companies are trading at ridiculous multiples of their earnings-per-share, but the multiples aren’t as high. That’s good, right?

No. No it isn’t. AI boosters and well-wishers are obsessed with making this comparison because saying “things worked out after the dot com bubble” allows them to rationalize doing stupid, destructive and reckless things.

Even if this was just like the dot com bubble, things would be absolutely fucking catastrophic — the NASDAQ dropped 78% from its peak in March 2000 — but due to the incredible ignorance of both the private and public power brokers of the tech industry, I expect consequences that range from calamitous to catastrophic, dependent almost entirely on how long the bubble takes to burst, and how willing the SEC is to greenlight an IPO.

The AI bubble bursting will be worse, because the investments are larger, the contagion is wider, and the underlying asset — GPUs — are entirely different in their costs, utility and basic value than dark fiber. Furthermore, the basic unit economics of AI — both in its infrastructure and the AI companies themselves — are magnitudes more horrifying than anything we saw in the dot com bubble.

In simpler terms, I’m really fucking worried, and I’m sick and tired of hearing people making this comparison."

https://www.wheresyoured.at/dot-com-bubble/

#AI #GenerativeAI #LLMs #DotComBubble #AIBubble #VC #VentureCapital #BigTech

The main difference between the #dotcombubble and the #aibubble is that websites were still useful after the bubble burst.

#grandtheftautocomplete will always be shite.

La bulle Dot-Com (1995-2000) a vu des valorisations folles avant l'éclatement. Aujourd'hui, l'IA générative suscite un engouement similaire. L'histoire se répète-t-elle? Analyse des leçons passées pour naviguer l'avenir de l'IA.
⏩️ https://linkeaz.net/fr/posts/bulle-dot-com-1995-2000-lecons-ia

#HistoireDuWeb #Tech #DotComBubble #IA #TechHistory