Impact of Middle East Conflicts on Refugees in Turkey

War in Middle East and its effects

March 2026

Although war reporting generates a lot of commentary on the deaths of those caught up in the conflicts, the effects on refugees and those displaced receives much less attention. With the new war(s) in the Middle East, refugees are again in the news. So far, most displaced people have been moved within the countries of Iran and Lebanon, but Turkey in particular is being readied for an influx of refugees.  The European Union Agency for Asylum thinks here will possibly be large numbers of displaced persons as a result of the conflict, many of them heading for Turkey. The Institute for Migration estimates that as of now there are 19 million internally displaced in the region; the UNHCR have calculated in the last few days that 667,000 Lebanese have registered as displaced.

Home Secretary’s refugee plans

At home, the big story is the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood’s plan to reduce the length of protected stay of refugees from 5 years to half of that, during which time they will only have temporary refugee status.  This will be subject to review every 30 months for up to 20 years. During this period claimants may be deported if, in the opinion of the Home Office, their country of origin has become deemed “safe”.  A large number of Labour backbenchers are opposing the move, and the Law Society has observed that it might not comply with international law. Other objections have been that the plan will be costly (£872 million over a decade, according to the Refugee Council) and impractical. On 5th March, the Home Secretary revoked the legal duty to provide destitute asylum seekers with support and accommodation while their claims are processed, often for months or years.  The Home Office have been influenced by the so-called “Danish model”, which takes a hard line on immigration.

Among the latest statistics to be released, the Home Office received up to 23,000 referrals of alleged human trafficking in 2025 (the main sources were Eritrea and Vietnam).  The backlog of cases has reduced, but there has been an increase in the number of reconsiderations.  In 2025 about 100,000 claims for asylum were made in the UK. Of these, 41% were from small boat arrivals, 11% other irregular means, while 40% already had some form of leave before claiming.  The level of grants continues to drop, at 42% in 2025 (it used to be over 80%).  Syria has suffered particularly with levels of asylum grants down year-on-year from 88% to 9%.  Claims from Eritrea and Somalia are mostly accepted.

The ban on family reunions instigated last autumn is being challenged in the courts by Safe Passage International.  A High Court ruling is expected later this year.

Small boats in the Channel are now starting from further north, in Belgium, according to a BBC report.

The UN Missing Migrants Project, which records the number of deaths among attempted migrants globally, has designated three routes as particularly dangerous: from North Africa to the Central Mediterranean (esp. Libya); from Afghanistan to Iran (this was before the current conflict), and from West Africa to the Canaries (they note that migrants are coming from further south than they used to, with more risks attached).

Those politicians who seem keen on war and wanted the UK to adopt a more interventionist stance with the Israeli and US actions, seem not to be quite so aware of the knock-on effects. Many of those same politicians are to be heard railing against refugees. Wars generate refugees. A proportion end up at Calais.

AH

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Asylum Seekers: UK Policy Changes and Impact in 2026

Some positive news on refugees and asylum seekers

January 2026

With the events in Venezuela, threats to occupy Greenland and continuing conflict in Ukraine, news about small boat arrivals and immigrants generally has dropped out of the news recently. Problems remain however.

Firstly, the final figure for irregular arrivals in the UK by small boats in 2025 was 41,000, the second-highest annual total ever.  The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act is now in force, with new measures allowing Border Force to seize phones and SIM cards from irregular arrivals, ostensibly to help in tracking down smugglers.  Seizures of cash and assets of convicted smugglers are up 33% in year to September, compared to the previous year.

More positively, 5 local councils in England and Wales have declared an interest in a pilot scheme to use new build and refurbished council homes for asylum seekers as a way of removing them from hotels. The homes would be built with government money, leased to the Home Office, and then added to LA stock. The views of other prospective council home tenants have not yet been noted.

In the EU, heads of state met on 8 January to discuss its Common European System for Returns, instituted last March.  The Commission claims that only 20% of those designated for deportation actually are removed.  The effectiveness of the new system is not yet clear.  The UK government claims to have removed 50,000 claimants since it came into office in July 2024.

On the global level, Sherif A Wahab has calculated that the numbers of Displaced Persons is now double what it was in 2012; one-third of them are refugees (i.e. outside their country). Likewise the number of refugees who have been in exile for more than 5 years has doubled over the last decade; reasons for this include conflicts lasting longer; lack of strategy at local and national levels; refusals of permanent residency and other repressive policies. Of the world’s 32 million refugees only 204,000 returned home or settled permanently in 2022 (latest figures).

‘failure of imagination and ambition’

The head of the UNHCR, Filippo Grandi – on retiring last month – expressed his views on what he saw as a failure of imagination and ambition; “the international community should invest in asylum systems to make them faster, more efficient and better able to return people who do not need the help”  In his view, governmental responsibility does not impinge on sovereignty, but is an extension of it.

The link below to an article from The Guardian looks at the working of community sponsorship schemes; it implies that the government is still committed to legal routes to resettlement.  The Home Secretary said last November that she hoped to develop this model further.

“With control [over Britain’s borders] restored, we will open up new, capped routes for refugees for whom this country will be the first, safe haven they encounter.  We will make community sponsorship the norm, so we know that the pace and scale of change does not exceed what a local area is willing to accept,” she said.

‘It takes a town to raise a family’: the community sponsors supporting refugees in the UK | Communities | The Guardian

On the campaigning front, Safe Passage International have produced for the new year a Resolutions Generator, which, when pressed, will offer a small way in which one can help or understand better.

And here’s a petition against deportations from WeMoveEurope:

Say No to Mass Deportations in Europe | WeMove Europe

AH

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Talk by Peter Oborne in Salisbury on 21st about his new book ‘Complicit’

Stories from the Small Boats Crisis

Notes from a talk at the Cheltenham Literature Festival

October 2025

This was the title of an extremely interesting talk given by three different speakers at the Festival on the the vexed subject of the small boats crossing the Channel. You would have to be living in a cave in the UK not to know that the boats crossing the Channel is causing huge political waves in the UK. Politicians are scrambling to come up with solutions to stop the crossings. The tabloid and right-wing newspapers keep up a seemingly never ending series of stories on the subject. Some communities are sufficiently angry to stand outside hotels where asylum seekers are housed. The nation as a whole seems very angry.

It was interesting therefore to go to a talk where there was a different take on the subject give by the three speakers. They were:

• Nicola Kelly, an investigative journalist but had worked for the Home and Foreign offices before leaving
• Horatio Clare an author and
• Mir Rahami who at 13, had to flee Afghanistan.

There were a number of points made as you would expect. The ‘crisis’ as it has come to be called was presented as a crisis for us rather than a crisis for those on the boats. The sufferings of such people and the privations they have experienced has got lost in all the invective hurled at them by a number of politicians and journalists. The rights of the people arriving seem to have got lost.

If there were no wars there would probably be no refugees, or least fewer of them, it was claimed. We have noted in previous posts that the UK has been happy to sell arms and issue open licences for such arms with only weak controls on where they end up. There is a kind of irony in this activity which causes deep distress and mayhem in the countries involved while the same politicians complain about those escaping arriving on our shores.

The similarity to Brexit was discussed. Misinformation promoted by some of the same individuals making much noise over the crossings. A balanced view never seems to emerge either from them or those elements of the media which support them. Another aspect of Brexit was mentioned. It is often a complaint that we do not know who the immigrants are and that some may be people with criminal pasts. This is made worse because we no longer have access to the databases having left the EU. Brexit in other words has made the problem worse.

One interesting point – a point you seldom hear discussed – is that money and investment can go where it wishes. Goods can be traded internationally largely without let or hindrance. But people cannot. So the forces which cause economic imbalances are unfettered but those affected are not permitted to respond by leaving.

A major part of the government’s response is to ‘smash the gangs’. There is a lot of talk on this topic but always with the assumption that the gangs are in the Continent. What about the gangs operating here about which there seems to be silence? Might it be part of the UK being a victim in some way of the lawless gangs? That gangs which operate here don’t fit that narrative.

A major point made – a lament really – was the lack of politicians willing to speak out in favour of immigration and the benefits they bring. There are problems but there just seems to be a constant flow of one way talk about the ‘crisis’. It became self-fulfilling. The ex-Home Office speaker said the department were obsessed with the media and tried to come up with sensationalist material to show they were on top of the subject.

The presentation was well received.

(Image, BBC)

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