In a CACM op-ed, @vardi points out the obvious: U.S. computer science PhD students come here substantially from China. Where are the domestic students? Getting paid outrageous industrial salaries. It's financially irrational for them to pursue a PhD.
And these international students, coming to the U.S., often decide to stay, joining our companies, starting new ones, or becoming American professors themselves. They're keeping the dream alive. They're a huge win for our country!
U.S. policy towards China has changed in ways that may have benefits for U.S. tech companies, at the cost of the pipeline of Chinese students, which will have long term ramifications. Meanwhile, China is taking their own steps to try to keep their students at home, so maybe we've got less to lose here than it seems.
I'm wildly unclear if there's something magical we can do to make more domestic students want to pursue a PhD. I kinda did it on a whim ("seems fun, and I can always go back to California and get a nice job"), but I had the luxury of zero student debt, plus those tasty summer internships, throughout grad school, probably doubled my annual take-home. That doesn't hold true for many other prospective PhD students.
I often hear students say that they'll "go back to grad school after a few years" but few actually do. Maybe there's something there worth exploring further. Or, maybe there's something broader to say about the seemingly brutal "publish or perish" world of academia. It's fun if you're winning. It's really not fun at all if you're getting scooped.
https://m-cacm.acm.org/magazines/2023/1/267968-how-not-to-win-a-tech-war/fulltext