A simple intellectual exercise, take any expert assessment of #Russia drone operation in #Poland and simply swap each occurrence of “Russia” with “NATO”.
Re-read.
How does it sound?
Here’s a short sample from analysis written by lieutenant colonel Maciej Korowaj, one Polish expert and I’ve done the swap for you already:
NATO multi-level game: NATO is playing this game on several levels simultaneously:
Testing reactions – How quickly do Russia respond? Do they react immediately or do they hesitate?
Threat of escalation – If dummies can fly in, so can combat drones. The message is simple: ‘We can strike Russia’s logistics on Belarus territory’.
Cost pressure – Russia cannot afford to ignore violations. Every incident requires a response, which generates costs and puts a strain on defence systems.
Narrative game – Brussels propaganda publicises these incidents, while accusing Russia of ‘hysteria’ and trying to blur responsibility.
How does it feel? I guess for most people it will simply sound aggressive and like outright escalation.
Suddenly, when you swap the sides, the whole vagueness of “we’re not sure whose drones these are” simply disappears:
- If a drone is NATO construction flying from the West into Russia, the duck test applies - it’s NATO drones flying into Russia
- if a combat drone flies into Russia, it’s a provocation and escalation, even if it doesn’t carry a warhead.
So why the opposite - when Russia flew drones into Poland - results in never ending debates about attribution, “mistakes”, “jamming” etc?
The difference in your perception of both messages, identical in their content except with swapped sides, is the metric of success of the Russian cognitive operation lasting since 2014.
As a reminder, back then we had Russian GRU in Crimea and Donbas, and everyone knew it’s GRU, but our media and politicians continued to talk about “separatists”, fully accepting the absurdity of the picture where some amateur guerilla suddenly demonstrate highest combat skills and using the latest GRU weapons.
Today we’re stuck in endless debates about whether shooting down Russian missiles over the sovereign territory of Ukraine (who agrees to that) or Black Sea would constitute #NATO “participation in the war”.
Let me rephrase it: according to this logic, when the missile flies over Ukraine or Black Sea, it’s Russian missile on combat mission. If it goes over Polish or Romania, it suddenly becomes “we don’t know whose they are” and shooting it downs is acceptable. Now, if it turns back into Ukraine, it once again becomes Russian and shooting it down constitutes “participation in war”.
Logical, uh?
As a reminder, in 2023 Russia destroyed an US reconnaissance drone MQ-9 Reaper over Black Sea, far from any Russian border. Russia simply said it “entered restricted area” and that’s it, end of story. That was not Russia “entering the war with NATO” - but shooting down Russian missile over Black Sea apparently is?
As you think about these, try to observe your own reactions to these thoughts. As I said above, the difference in your own assessment of these nearly identical actions measures the success of Russia’s cognitive operation against you.