Mastodawn

🌱 #Ags this week: The macro backdrop remains mixed; stocks are up, and the U.S. dollar is stubbornly strong. Weekend Crude Oil markets point lower on new U.S.-Iran peace deal headlines. 🛢️ Corn Belt weather looks warm and drier again this week. 🌤️ Corn demand is strong. Funds still hold historically large long positions. Important seasonal trends kick off this week for Milk, Corn, Palm Oil, Canola Seeds, Wheat, and Matif Rapeseeds. Memorial Day Monday, PCE Inflation data Thursday. 📊

Peak Trading Research 5d ago

Hedge fund ag buying has completely reversed. 📉🌽🌱

The catalysts:
🛢️ Softer Crude Oil prices
💵 Stronger U.S. dollar
🌦️ Better U.S. planting weather
📆 Bearish seasonal turns

Crowded agriculture longs are starting to unwind. 📊

Peak Trading Research 5d ago

Funds dumped Soybeans, Canola, Coffee, and Cocoa last week. 🌱☕🍫📉 At the same time, Crude Oil saw massive long liquidations & new shorts 🛢️. That matters: Crude, along with high fertilizer and input costs, has been one of the biggest pillars holding up the #ag complex. 🌽🌾

Peak Trading Research May 17

🌾 Wheat traders: Look out BELOW! 📉 Today, May 17th, is the statistical 15-year seasonal high for Kansas Wheat. Are drought damage and the USDA's lower production outlook enough to keep this market afloat ... or will a stronger USD and cheaper global cash finally start to weigh? 📉 Have we seen the highs?

Peak Trading Research May 17

🌾 Ags This Week: BIG fund unwinds may be starting 📉 Wheat, Palm Oil, and Rapeseeds are all approaching important seasonal turning points. Macro turned defensive last week (USD up, rates up, equities down). Nvidia earnings this Wed. More "Super" El Niño talk 🌧️ Warm U.S. planting weather this week. 🚜 Memorial Day weekend ahead. 📅

Peak Trading Research May 16

🌾 The ag bull story is starting to crack.

Funds sold aggressively during the latest COT week ... and dumped even more agriculture futures through Friday's close.

The pillars of the rally are weakening:

🐉 Fading China trade optimism
🚜 Faster U.S. planting
💵 U.S. dollar now trending higher
📉 Bullish momentum fading

Profit-taking ... or the start of something bigger?

#agriculture #commodities #macromatters

Peak Trading Research May 16

🚨 Funds hit the sell button last week. COT report:

🌽 Corn: -$1.0B
🐄 Cattle: -$1.1B
🌼 Canola: -$315mm
🍫 Cocoa: -$519mm

Hedge funds were $36B+ net long 10 days ago ... a four-year high. Today: closer to ~$25B after heavy long liquidation and aggressive new shorts.

Still historically large. No longer extreme. 📉

Is the top in?

#agriculture #commodities #macromatters

Peak Trading Research May 11

🛢️🌽 Crude Oil and Corn are moving in lockstep.

Corn-Crude correlation: +0.81 over the past 10 days, the strongest agri-macro relationship across the commodity complex right now.

Crude up 🛢️ = Corn up 🌽

Peak Trading Research May 10

Ags this week: BIG week ahead. 📑 U.S. CPI inflation & May WASDE Tuesday; Trump-Xi meetings start Thursday. 📈 Funds near 4-year highs. 🌽 Corn planting accelerating. ⏰ Strong May seasonal signals. A LOT of bullish narratives are about to get tested. 🌾🍬🧵

Peak Trading Research May 10

💔 Is the agriculture love story starting to crack?

Hedge funds hit 4-year highs in agriculture futures through Tuesday's COT ... then sold an estimated -138k contracts to close the week.

BIG catalysts ahead: CPI & WASDE Tuesday, Trump-Xi Thursday.

Time to take chips off the table? 📉