In a paper published last week in JAMA Network Open, Chris Frenier & I use APCD data to investigate coverage transitions after loss of Medicaid in Minnesota.

We find that half of enrollees exiting in 2018 or early 2019 had no observable coverage 6 months later, and a large share (including over 50% of kids) returned to Medicaid within a year.

This suggests that many enrollees were still eligible for Medicaid at termination or had very short-term changes in eligibility.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2804103

Shared this new paper on Twitter yesterday:

In the course of researching coverage and access and teaching U.S. health policy, you inevitably get asked "why can't we have nice things?" (People use different words and tones, but that is the upshot of the question.)

The paper is an effort to answer once version of that question.

Popular... to a Point: The Enduring Political Challenges of the Public Option – https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0009.12599

The new omnibus bill would decouple the Medicaid continuous coverage provision from the federal PHE, effectively kicking off "unwinding" in April.

Text: https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/JRQ121922.PDF

Unwinding policies start on p. 3854

As drafted, the current 6.2pp FMAP bump would extend through the end of March, falling to 5pp for April through June, falling to 2.5pp for the third quarter of the year, then 1.5pp for the last quarter.