Tom Brown

@nworbmot
580 Followers
248 Following
113 Posts
energy system modeller | professor TU Berlin | http://github.com/PyPSA | http://model.energy |
@openmod ally | he/him
Homepagehttps://nworbmot.org

Existing stakeholders may find that scary, but it will help the energy transition in the long-run.

Tools like PyPSA-SPICE and others can help lower the barrier to running these tools.

#freethemodels

Open modelling is much more about **process**, about involving existing and new stakeholders in the process of energy system planning. We don't have a perfect roadmap where we're going with the energy transition so a) we need lots of folks enabled to think about innovative ways to drive it forward faster and b) we need high levels of general involvement to enable stakeholder buy-in for all the changes it brings. Open modelling can help get more folks involved, **that** is the big selling point.

Sometimes in the discussion around open energy modelling it's suggested that if everyone just switched from PLEXOS to an open source framework, or put their model data online, then we're done.

That's not how I see it.

The recording of @AgoraEW's "empowerment through openness" webinar is online! 📺 Keynote from me and PyPSA-SPICE intro by Samarth Kumar, PhD, with discussion moderation by Rena Kuwahata.

https://www.agora-energiewende.org/news-events/empowerment-through-openness-the-future-of-energy-modelling (includes video and presentation materials)

I want to make a few comments and highlight slide 6 in my deck.

Whoadang, shit's getting real in open modeling land!

Via @nworbmot

#OpenSource #EnergyTransition #FOSS

Fossil fuels with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS): Can be cost-effective, but some solutions have high CAPEX (others like Allam cycle maybe do not), sequestration capacity is initially scarce and taken by harder-to-abate sectors, upstream emissions, air pollutants (again, doesn't apply to Allam).

Any more suggestions?

Unabated fossil fuels compensated by carbon dioxide removal (CDR): Could be cost-effective in the long-run, but many challenges: we should be keeping CDR for harder-to-abate sectors, upstream emissions have to be compensated, other air pollutants are released (NOx etc).
Biomass residues: Plants that use solid biomass have high CAPEX because of need to handle inhomogeneous feedstock. Biogas plants are too small to store enough biogas for rare events like this. Can upgrade biomass to biomethane/ol and store it centrally. But then the usage of sustainable carbon competes w/ industry feedstocks, dense fuels and CDR.
Nuclear: Nuclear is not great for capacity because of its high CAPEX. Suppose we built 70 GW of nuclear. Then it has to fight with wind and solar at other times, and it won't compete in long-run unless it has LCOE < 80 EUR/MWh (rough system cost of this renewables-based system with interconnection).
Other green molecules: Hydrogen is a pain to handle, but other green-hydrogen-based molecules could substitute, like methane, methanol or ammonia, see e.g. here: https://nworbmot.org/energy/brown-iew24.pdf