I found this Bob Katter picture and decided it had good meme potential.
https://media.invisioncic.com/g326913/monthly_2024_07/bob-katter-rant-800.jpg.396709757bba97f60637b444075bfbcf.jpg

eg

I've been working with Time Series models a fair bit lately, and have noticed that ARIMA models (in particular) tend to regress to the long-term mean. This is usually a good thing, agreeing with the intuition that the least wrong guess about the future behaviour (of a stable system) is somewhere in that location (ie weather averages out to historical climate in the long run - in the absence of climate change, that is).

But it's made me wonder if these models might be the cause of consistent over|under-estimation of the future behaviour of systems undergoing fundamental changes over time?

eg Consistent underestimation of solar PV growth and overestimation of RBA wage-price figures.

#TimeSeries #ARIMA #rstats

Photo of the #auspol weekend.

H/T this funny and insightful column from John Birmingham.
https://aliensideboob.substack.com/p/this-is-why-we-can-have-nice-things

Update: CW added, sorry for the oversight.

#auspol