I know what the 12V on the mystery connector is now, it's from the ignition!
cue motorcycle blowing the ignition fuse after taking a right onto the four lane road with no service lane. good thing there's spares in the fuse box because otherwise I would've been even more fucked.
anyways, made it home safe, though not thanks to the Mercedes driver who got up my butt and honked the horn at me despite me driving with hazards on when the right lane was completely empty.