Strategic Threat Report: Nuclear Supply to Iran Following U.S. Strikes

Context & Premise

On June 22, 2025, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev publicly stated that 'a number of countries are
ready to directly supply Iran with their own nuclear warheads' in response to a U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear
facilities, carried out in coordination with Israeli forces. This unprecedented declaration follows severe
damage inflicted by 75 precision-guided munitions, including bunker-busters, on Iran's Fordow, Natanz, and
Esfahan nuclear sites.

Although not confirmed as an operational policy of the Kremlin, the statement represents strategic signaling
and potentially lays the groundwork for nuclear proliferation to Iran - a flagrant violation of the
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

Global Strategic Implications

- Nuclear Proliferation: Breakdown of international arms control regimes
- Middle East Security: Heightened risk of military escalation and regional destabilization

- Global Norms: Erosion of trust in multilateral institutions and nuclear non-proliferation
Scenario Analysis: Actor Responses

Israel Scenario

Trigger: Intelligence indicating imminent or actual transfer of nuclear warheads to Iranian territory.

- Preemptive Air and Cyber Strikes
- National Emergency Measures
- Allied Coordination

Strategic Threat Report: Nuclear Supply to Iran Following U.S. Strikes

U.S. Scenario

Trigger: Verification or credible indication of a nuclear transfer to Iran by a third party.

- Escalated Force Posture
- Expanded Sanctions & Legal Retaliation
- Cyber & Intelligence Warfare

UN and IAEA Scenario

Trigger: Declaration or evidence of nuclear warhead movement or deployment to Iranian forces.

- UN Security Council Paralysis
- General Assembly Action
- IAEA Emergency Inspections

Risk Forecast Summary

- Strategic Arms Race: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt could accelerate nuclear programs
- Geopolitical Polarization: Heightened U.S.-Russia-China confrontation; NATO vs. BRICS-style division

- Institutional Collapse: Undermining of NPT, IAEA, and JCPOA enforcement credibility
- Civilian Threat Exposure: Increased likelihood of nuclear deterrent breakdowns or miscalculation

Final Assessment

The statement by Medvedev marks a red line in global nuclear diplomacy. Whether rhetorical or preparatory,
it directly threatens the foundational global consensus against nuclear proliferation. Should nuclear weapons
be transferred to Iran, it would constitute the most destabilizing proliferation event since the Cold War, with
Strategic Threat Report: Nuclear Supply to Iran Following U.S. Strikes
immediate consequences across military, economic, and diplomatic domains.

Recommendation: This risk should be treated as an active strategic contingency, warranting immediate
multinational monitoring, diplomatic containment, and alliance coordination