I wasn't the only one to notice, that it got noticeably quieter on #Twitter after the introduction of #Threads (with the exception of Europe, yet it was noticeable here too).
For a few days, in our analytics, it looked like the visits from #Twitter would decrease so much, that #Mastodon could finally come out clearly in front. But quickly the effect has completely disappeared again: #Twitter as a whole is ahead of #Mastodon again. If you take out the effects I described earlier, they again remain on par.
Also, I still see that visits from #Mastodon's have decreased if you add up all our accounts on social.heise.de: So the end of automatic retweets (https://social.heise.de/@heiseonline/110371699219107096) has hurt us overall, @heiseautos, @heisec, @macandi & Co. reach significantly fewer people on their own.
That's a shame, given how it was before. But I can't say, that it's surprising.
Also, it is significant that of the 20 best performing articles on #Mastodon, 8 (!) were published in November and December, 5 in January/February and 6 in March/April: only one article published after April 4 made it into the top 20. The heyday of the recent #MastodonMigration was a while ago.
Things look a bit better when it comes to engagement: 6 of the 20 articles with the most boosts and favs appeared after April 1.
All in all, a rather mixed picture: #Mastodon obviously can't benefit much from the situation on #Twitter. But it also may be, that the recent growth of the #Fediverse may simply be taking place elsewhere and to a much lesser extent in the German-speaking world.
Of course, my numbers are only limited and @heiseonline has a special target group. But as long as there are no better numbers, I will keep an eye on it.