With thanks from @GourlaySyd
"The new infections data shows an ACCELERATION, so slowing hospitalisations doesn’t make sense. I’ve curve-fitted JUST the NSW Health data (it’s always different and maybe it doesn’t make sense to combine it with portal data) and this projects a HIGHER (1,780 patients) and LATER peak: 18th December ± a couple of days. If infections have accelerated this will add more upward pressure on hospitalisations.
Last week there was a sign of slowing in the infections data, but it’s now accelerated over the past week. It’s such a complex mix of variants with so many components that it’s getting to the stage where almost ANY growth curve is possible.
Party may just be getting started, Folks!